Emerging Ballistic missile threat from the Middle East, and South Asia

Discussion in 'Pakistan Strategic Forces' started by usman_1112, May 26, 2009.

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  1. usman_1112
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    usman_1112 FULL MEMBER

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    Emerging Ballistic missile threat from the Middle East, and South Asia.
    Emerging Ballistic missile threat from the Middle East, and South Asia.
    Ballistic missile race in Middle East and South Asia.
    Ballistic missiles with their warheads of mass destruction are transforming military and political landscapes in much the same way that aircraft put an end to colonial empires. Let’s get rid of these “god-awful” missiles before they get us.

    By moving the U.S. focus away from international nonproliferation treaties such as the CTBT and withdrawing from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, the Bush Administration’s de-emphasis of “vertical proliferation” issues has contributed to legitimizing South Asia’s and Middle East strategic arsenals.

    The proliferation of ballistic missiles in the most volatile regions of the world, and especially in the countries of concern, has stolen all the limelight from the hidden dangers lurking behind the ever-growing menace of increasingly more sophisticated cruise and Ballistic missiles. This unifocal obsession with the threat emanating from the emerging ballistic missile capabilities of the ‘different states’ may well have contributed towards turning a blind eye to the possibilities of a variety of low-tech means of destruction, which could be employed by forces inimical to the interests of the US and the rest of the world community .

    Any missile that lofts an explosive payload which descends to its target as a ballistic projectile—that is, solely under the influence of gravity and air resistance—is a ballistic missile. Missiles that do not deliver a free-falling payload, such as engine powered cruise missiles (which fly to their targets as robotic airplanes), are not "ballistic."

    A ballistic missile has two basic components: a package contains guidance systems and explosives (the payload) and the rocket that lofts the payload into the upper atmosphere or into space (the booster). Ballistic missiles traverse distance rapidly; a long-range ballistic missile can travel to the other side of the world in 30 minutes. Because they give so little advance warning and deliver small, fast-moving payloads that may contain nuclear weapons capable of destroying entire cities, ballistic weapons are highly destructive and difficult to defend against

    The key element here is that Iran is steadily building up its knowledge of missile technology. Iran’s determination to acquire and produce ballistic missiles grew out of its war with Iraq in the 1980s. Tehran found itself ill-prepared to retaliate against Iraq's missile attacks on Iranian cities. Tehran decided that for its own protection, it had to achieve self-reliance in missile production. Iran’s ballistic missile development was in full force by the mid-1980s during its protracted war against Iraq, during which Iran reportedly launched more than 600 ballistic missiles.

    Iran's successful launch of its own satellite by its own rocket shows how it is slowly but surely mastering the missile technology that the West and Israel fear one day might be available as a delivery system for a nuclear weapon. Iran remains committed to developing a long-range ICBM that can extend Tehran’s military reach to Europe and the United States. The Middle East, Europe and even the Eastern Seaboard of the United States may find themselves within range of Iranian nuclear missiles in the next three to five years or less.Even in case of a conventional intercontinental ballistic missile — ICBM — launch from Iran, the warheads could reach the U.S. mainland within approximately 33 minutes, …

    The NCRI claims that the Aerospace Industries Organization manages a number of missile-related factories and research centers, including the Missile Center of Saltanat-Abad, the Vanak Missile Center, the Parchin Missile Industries factories, the Baqeri base factories Numbers 1-3, the Tabriz Bakeri base factory, the Bakeri Missile Industries factory, the Hemmat Missile Industries factory, the Bagh Shian (Almehdi) Missile Industries, the Shah-Abadi Industrial Complex, the Khajir Complex, the Baqerololum Missile Research Center, the Mostafa Khomeini base factory, and the Quadiri Base factory.
    Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBMs )
    Iran might also possess a few hundred SRBMs with a range of about 500-700 kilometers or so when carrying a 770-1,000 kilogram warhead. These SRBMs have sometimes been referred to as the SCUD-C and Shahab-2. There are some reports of an operational SRBM with a range up to 800 kilometers, which may possibly be referred to as an M-9 variant, DF-15, or CSS-6. Reportedly, the PRC produced the M-9 for export and Iran has acquired some number of them. According to the U.S. Defense Department, Iran fired nearly 100 Scuds at Iraq between 1985 and 1988

    Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBMs) = 150 - 799 kms.
    Medium Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBMs) = 800 - 2,399 kms.
    Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBMs) = 2,400 - 5,499 kms.
    Intercontinental Range Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) = 5,500 kms and greater.

    (1) Shahab-1, Propellant liquid, Range (km) 285-330, IOC 1995, Type, Scud-B, Body Diameter (m), 0.885.
    (2) Shahab-2, Propellant liquid, Range (km) 500-700, IOC 1997, Type, Scud-c, Body Diameter (m), ,0.885.
    (3) Mushak-120, Propellant Solid, Range (km) 130 km, IOC 1988, Body Diameter (m), 0.885 (Alternate Names Iran-130, Nazeat 10)
    (4) Mushak-160, Propellant Solid, Range (km) 160 km IOC 2002, (Alternate Names Fateh-110 / NP-110)
    (5) Mushak-200, Propellant Solid, Range (km) 200 km (Alternate Names Zelzal-2)
    One of Iran's earliest steps in this direction was to produce the "Mushak" short-range surface-to-surface missile. A U.S. official compared this primitive solid fuel missile to the unguided Soviet Frog missile and to the Pakistani Hatf 1 missile, which flies about 80 kilometers. The first Mushak, also known as the Iran-130, was test-fired in early 1988, and was designed to fly to a maximum range of 130 kilometers. By March 1988, five Mushak missiles had been fired at Iraq during the War of the Cities.

    Solid fuel missile called the Fateh 110. Both are short-range, tactical missiles. Iran claims to have successfully flight tested the Fateh 110 in September 2002. It is reportedly a single-stage missile with at least a 200 km range. According to an Iranian media report, the Aerospace Industries Organization opened a plant to mass produce the Fateh 110 in mid-September 2002, after completing a successful test flight.

    Medium Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBMs)
    Iran’s Shahab-3, which sometimes appears also to be called the Zelzal- 3 ballistic missile, is reported range of about 1,000 to 1,500 kilometers. This could reach potential targets throughout most of the Middle East. Some have speculated that North Korea, Iran, and Pakistan entered into a cooperative effort at one point to develop a missile of this range and capability. Other observers have alleged Russian assistance in Iranian development of this missile. Some reports suggest that Iran has already deployed a number of medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs).

    This liquid-fueled, road mobile, nuclear capable ballistic missile became known as the Shahab 3 in Iran. According to Iran's Aerospace Industries Organization, the Shahab 3 is designed to carry a 1,200 kg payload 1,300 km; however, another report estimates the missile's payload at around 750 kg. Prototypes of the missile have been on public display.


    (1) Shahab-3 or Zelzal- 3, Propellant liquid, Range (km) - 1,000-1,350-1,500, , IOC 1999, Type, MRBM, Body Diameter (m), 1.3,.
    (2) Shahab-3D Zelzal-3D, Stages 2,Propellant liquid, solid, Range (km)- ,1500+ , IOC 2001, Type, MRBM, Body Diameter (m), 1.3,.
    (3) IRIS Zelzal-3D, Stages 2, Propellant liquid, solid, Range (km)- ,1500+ , IOC 2001, Type, MRBM, Body Diameter (m), 1.3,.
    (4) Shahab-4, stages 3, Propellant liquid, solid, Range (km) - , 1,800-2,000, IOC 2003, Type, MRBM, Body Diameter (m), 1.65 (Indigenously developed system with similar performance to the Soviet SS-4.)
    (5) IRSL-X-2, Stages 3, Propellant liquid, solid, Range (km) - , 2,200-2,896 , IOC 2005, , Type M/IRBM, Body Diameter (m), 1.3 (Satellite launch variant of the Shahab-4. Indigenous ly derived version of North Korea's NKSL-)

    The NCRI claims that Iran has already successfully tested the Shahab 4 at a missile firing range south of Semnan, in May and August 2002. According to the NCRI, Iran assembles the missile at the Hemat Industrial complex, a plant that belongs to the Revolutionary Guard Corps and that is located on the Damavand Tehran Highway. The NCRI asserts that the missile has a range of up to 2,000 km and can carry a 1,500 kg warhead

    Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBMs)
    (1)Shahab-5 IRSL-X-3/Kosar IRIS , Stages 2, 3, Propellant liquid, solid, Range (km), 3,500-3,750 (2 stage)- 4,000-4,300 (3 stage), IOC 2009, , Type LRICBM, Body Diameter (m), 2.2.( Indigenously developed system with similar performance to the Soviet SS-5.)
    (2) Shahab-6 IRSL-X-4/Kosar, , Stages 3, Propellant liquid, solid, Range (km), 5,470-5,500 or 5,632-6,200 6,200-6,700 > 8,000,Type LRICBM, FRICBM, Body Diameter (m), 2.2.( Satellite launch variant of the Shahab-5. Indigenously derived version of North Korea's NKSL-X-2. The claimed range probably exceeds what is technically feasible. It most likely is similar in performance to the Soviet SS-5 (4,000-4,300).

    In January 2002, the U.S. Department of Commerce identified Israel, a non-member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), as a possible supplier of missile technology. The report did note, however, that Israel abides by MTCR Guidelines, which aim to limit the proliferation of missile delivery systems for weapons of mass destruction

    Israel also possesses the U.S.-supplied Lance missile. The Lance is a liquid-fueled, short-range, mobile, nuclear-capable missile with a range of 130 kilometers and a payload capacity of at least 210 kilograms

    The Jericho-II of carrying a 750 to 1,000-kilogram payload considerably more than 1,500 kilometers. The three-stage Jericho-III missile, reportedly under development, is believed to have a range of 4,800 kilometers

    (1)weapon name Lance, Western designation- Lance, weapon type- SRBM, Payload-210 kilograms
    (2) weapon name - Luz Ya-1 , Western designation -Jericho-1 , RANGE (km) 500 Payload 500 Kg, stock entry- 1973. Yield-20 kt
    (3) weapon name Luz Ya-11, Western designation -Jericho-1, stock entry- 1981, yield- 60 kt
    (4) Barak missile (Naval point defense)
    (5) Python 5 (Air-to-air)
    (6) Popeye missile (Air-to-ground cruise missile. U.S. designation AGM-142 Have Nap. Possibly larger derivatives exist as well, including a submarine-launched variant)
    (7) Delilah missile (Cruise missile of several variants: drone, air-to-ground, possible anti-radiation variant as well)
    Gabriel missile sea-to-sea missile Manufacturer Israel Aircraft Industries In service 1962, Warhead-100 kg, Operators- Chile , Ecuador . India , Israel , Kenya , Mexico , South Africa , Sri Lanka

    The Gabriel is an Israeli sea-skimming anti-ship missile, also known as a Scorpion missile in the Navy. Development of the Gabriel for the Israeli Navy began in 1962. The first model was ready by the 1973 Yom Kippur War and was credited with easily defeating Syrian and Egyptian ships armed with the Soviet-made Styx missile. Gabriel III and Gabriel III A/S were introduced with major improvements. The air-launched Gabriel III A/S has a range of over 60km. Both Gabriel III versions utilise the now widely used 'fire and forget' mode.

    Arrow, a missile defense system that is currently deployed in Israel. Jointly developed by the two allies, the Arrow is among the world’s most sophisticated missile shields. It is the only operational system that has consistently proven that one missile can shoot down another at high altitudes and speeds. The centerpiece of the U.S.-Israeli cooperative defense relationship, the Arrow in 2000 became the first theater missile defense system in the world to be deployed.
    Israel, as an example, is reported to have provided to India guidance and electronic miniaturization technology that can be used for warhead development and missile accuracy. This Israeli technology, which could be used to support nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, is said to be based on trade and India's recognition of Israel's right to exist as a nation.

    The world has long been concerned about the proliferation of nuclear weapons and their delivery systems in South Asia. This concern became acute after May 1998, when both India and Pakistan tested nuclear explosive devices. Since that time, both countries have continued testing nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, and both have established command and control authorities to oversee their nuclear arsenals.

    The origin of the Agni, India's largest nuclear-capable missile, is a significant lesson about the U.S. policy of cooperation with foreign space programs and about the risk that this kind of cooperation can contribute to the spread of ballistic missile technology.

    Thumba's first group of Indian engineers learned rocket launching and range operation in the United States." Thus, India learned how to build the first stage of the Agni from the United States and how to build the second stage from France and Russia. For Agni's guidance system, India turned to the German Space Agency.

    India began a comprehensive missile development programme, the Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme (IGMDP), in 1983. With an initial budget of Rs 380 crore, the programme envisaged "to take up simultaneously the design and development of five missiles which would provide the nation a comprehensive missile-based Defence umbrella within ten years''.

    The five missiles include the short-range surface-to-air missile Trishul; the surface-to-air missile, Akash; the smokeless high-energy anti-tank guided missile Nag; the surface-to-surface missile Prithvi, and the intermediate range missile Agni. Of these, only Prithvi and Agni are ballistic missiles.

    (1)MISSILE-Prithvi-1 RANGE/ 150 km/, PAYLOAD-1,000 kg. CEP-50 m,
    (2) MISSILE-Prithvi-2, RANGE/ 250 km/, PAYLOAD-500kg. CEP-75 m
    (3) MISSILE- Prithvi-3, RANGE/ 350 km/, PAYLOAD-1000kg. CEP-Un known
    (4) MISSILE- Agni-1 variant, RANGE/ 725 km/, PAYLOAD-1000kg. CEP-
    (5) MISSILE- Agni-1, RANGE/ 1500 km/, PAYLOAD-1000kg. CEP- 100 m
    (6) MISSILE - Agni-2, RANGE/ 2000 km/, PAYLOAD-1000kg. CEP- 100 m
    (7) MISSILE -Agni-3, RANGE/ 2500 -3000km/, PAYLOAD-1000kg. CEP-75 m
    (8) MISSILE- Surya, RANGE/ 5500 +km/, PAYLOAD-2000kg. CEP-100m
    (9) MISSILE-Sagarika (SLBM), RANGE/ 350 +km/, PAYLOAD-500kg. CEP
    (10) MISSILE- Dhanush, RANGE/ 40-250 km, PAYLOAD- 500-750kg. CEP- 75 m
    (11) Agni-V - ICBM (Under Development).
    Prithvi I. is a single-staged, liquid propellant, single warhead short-range ballistic missile. The Prithvi I is used exclusively by the Indian Army and is reported to have high explosive (HE) penetration, submunitions (incendiary and anti-personnel/anti-armor), and fuel air explosive and possibly chemical warheads. First test fired in February 1988, In service with the army since 1994. Yields- 12 or 20 KT.

    Prithvi II. Prithvi II missiles are reportedly used by the Indian Air Force to attack enemy airfields and to support the Indian Army on the battlefield. First test fired in January 1996

    BrahMos Cruise Missile. India and Russia reportedly are jointly developing
    the BrahMos anti-ship cruise missile. The BrahMos, which is not presently assessed to be nuclear-capable, has a reported range of 185 miles, a payload of 440 pounds, and a speed of more than 1,400 miles per hour. travels at supersonic speed (it is about 3 times faster than the current U.S. Tomahawk cruise missile)

    The fourth test of 3,500-km Agni-III, which will give India the strategic capability to hit targets deep inside China, is also on the anvil now. But Agni-III, tested successfully only twice in April 2007 and May 2008, will not be ready for induction before 2012

    design work on India’s most ambitious strategic missile with near ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) capabilities, the 5,000-km range Agni-V, which incorporates a third composite stage in the two-stage Agni-III, is also in progress. “We should be ready to test Agni-V by 2010-2011,” said an official.

    Pakistan's ballistic missile infrastructure is now more advanced than that of North Korea and India, Beginning without an extensive domestic science and technology base, and through foreign acquisition, this nation has acquired missile capabilities rapidly. Pakistan’s missile programs are a result of competition between Samar Mubarak Mund of the National Development Complex, responsible for solid-fuel missiles and Abdul Qadeer Khan of the Khan Research Laboratories where liquid-fueled missiles Are produced. Pakistan started planning its missile programme in early 1987

    Following the latest tests, Pakistan's missile arsenal now consists of the Hatf I, II ,III, IV, V,VI, India cannot simply dismiss the Pakistani progress in missile technology over India to foreign help. After all, the Indians have more access to foreign help than Pakistan and yet their program lags behind Pakistan.

    (1) Missile- Hatf I, Range- 60 - 100 km, Payload- 100 - 500 kg, CEP-100M
    (2) Missile- Hatf 2, Range- 280 - 450 km , Payload- 300 - 500kg, CEP- 200m
    (3) Missile- M-11, Range- 300 km, Payload- 300 - 500kg, CEP- 600m
    (4) Missile Hatf-3 (Ghaznavi)- Range- 280 km, Payload- 500kg,
    (5) Missile -Tarmuk-Range- 300 km, Payload- 800kg,
    (6) Missile - Haider-1 -Range- 350 km, Payload- 800kg,
    (7) Missile - Shaheen-1 -Range- 600 km, Payload- 750kg, CEP- 200 m
    (8) Missile - Shaheen-2 -Range- 2500 km, Payload- 750kg, CEP- 350 m
    (9) Missile - Ghauri I -Range- 1500 km, Payload- 760kg, CEP- 2500 m
    (10) Missile - Ghauri 2 -Range- 1,800 - 2,300 km , Payload- 760kg,
    (11) Missile - Ghauri -Range- 3.000 -4500km/ , Payload- 1000kg,

    Hatf I. The Hatf I is believed to be a single-stage, solid propellant rocket with
    a 60 to 80 km range carrying a 500 kg payload or a 350 km range carrying a 100 kg Payload. It was first flight-tested in 1989
    Hatf II. The Hatf II is a two-stage, solid propellant missile.
    Missile Hatf-3 (Ghaznavi) The Hatf-III, also known as the Ghaznavi, is a solid fuel short-range ballistic

    Shaheen I. The Shaheen I is a solid propellant, single warhead missile reportedly developed by Dr. Samar Mubarak Mund’s National Development Complex. The Shaheen I has a reported range of 600 km, an accuracy of 200 m, and can carry a 750 kg, 35 KT nuclear warhead or conventional or chemical munitions.

    Shaheen II. The Shaheen II is a road-mobile, two-stage, solid propellant ballistic missile also developed by Pakistan’s National Development Complex. Shaheen II reportedly has a 2,500 km range, a 350 m CEP, and can carry a 750 kg 15 to 35 KT nuclear warhead, as well as high explosives, submunitions, chemical, and fuel-air explosives. The Shaheen II was first publically displayed in 23 March 2000. A longer range, two-stage solid fuel missile Hatf-VI, also called Shaheen-II,

    Ghauri I. The Ghauri-series of road-mobile, liquid propellant missiles are produced in Pakistan’s Khan Research Laboratories. The Ghauri I is believed to have been operationally deployed in late 1998 by Pakistan’s 47th Artillery Brigade.

    Ghauri II. The Ghauri II is believed to be a lengthened and improved version of the Ghauri I, possibly employing new propellants and a motor assembly. The Ghauri II’s accuracy is unknown but its range is believed to be between 1,800 to 2,300 km and could also accommodate a 15 to 35 KT nuclear warhead as well as the full range of warheads available for the Ghauri I. Hatf-V, also named Ghauri, is a single-stage liquid fuel IRBM with a range of 1,500 km and a payload capacity of 700 kg. This missile was first test-fired in April 1998. There is another version, Ghauri-II, a liquid fuel, two- stage IRBM (intermediate range ballistic missile) with a claimed range of 2,300 km. It was first flight-tested in April 1999.

    Cruise Missiles: Cruise Missiles: Pakistan has tested an indigenous cruise missile system, the Babur/Haft-7. It is nuclear-capable and has a range of 500 kilometers. In service 11 August 2005

    Ra'ad (Hataf VIII) Air launched cruise missile. The Ra'ad ALCM's current range is stated to be 350 km. Ra'ad was tested for the first time on 25 August 2007. An official press-release by the military at the time of the test declared that the missile gave Pakistan Air Force a "strategic standoff capability on land and at sea," indicating that Ra'ad may be launched at sea-based targets such as ships, as well as land-based targets. On 8 May 2008, Ra'ad ALCM was tested by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), fired from a PAF Dassault Mirage III ROSE combat aircraft.

    Pakistan and India is going to build ICBM in two or three years which is most dangerous and will totally destroyed the peace and security of south Asia and especially for Middle East too.

    In 1962, President John F. Kennedy said, “The vast resources on this planet are being devoted more and more to the means of destroying, instead of enriching human life but the world was not meant to be a prison in which man awaits his execution.” Today, a bold approach to curbing ballistic missile threats is both justified and essential. The world cannot wait for the catastrophic event – the use of a nuclear ballistic missile – before acting with urgency and imagination. To wait is to risk a tragedy of epochal proportions.

    A global ban on ballistic missiles would roll back the nuclear context to one akin to the bomber-based forces of the 1950s. This would dramatically increase decision-making time and thus crisis stability, it would further enhance global security by removing the threat of accidental launch of deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and it would provide an interim stage upon which further nuclear disarmament could proceed.

    In much of the Middle East and South Asia there is a readiness to forgo costly regional ballistic missile arms races if the great powers would eliminate their own ballistic missiles and withdraw any threat of ballistic missiles against the regions involved

    Convincing India, Pakistan, Israel, Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and North Korea to give up missiles with ranges greater than 500 kilometers will require a huge diplomatic effort. Each of these countries has made or is planning to make significant investments in these weapons precisely because they believe they need such a threat to deter their enemies or defend their interests.

    Some states will argue ballistic missiles are their only deterrent against even greater threats. Iran, for example, will point to Israel’s nuclear weapons or U.S. conventional and nuclear strike capabilities as a reason to cling to its missile programs. Others will note that missiles with ranges less than 500 kilometers will not be banned under global ZBM (a necessary incentive for China); thus, they will remain vulnerable to short-range missiles.

    Part 2nd will about Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, turkey and GCC ballistic missiles usman karim based in Lahore Pakistan lmno25@hotmail.com
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  2. nightcrawler
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    nightcrawler FULL MEMBER

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    So much about ballistic missiles & their evolution in the near future we have to worry of course specially when our adversaries have got a quantitative edge I suppose that we don't take our security for grant rather be able to adobt effective counter ballistic approaches!!

    [​IMG]
  3. jawadqamar
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    jawadqamar FULL MEMBER

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    Usman are you the writer of this article? Its a very good effort, but there are Quite a few problems related to CEP,payload and range of paksitani missiles

    Can you refer to the sources you are using as they are offering quite old and unreliable information?
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  4. usman_1112
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    usman_1112 FULL MEMBER

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    ya i 'm writer of this article i work on this project and got a lot of sources plz
    i got all this information from differnt sources .1ST I GOT INFORMATION FROM CRS repport nuclear force of pakistan and 2nd biggest sources in JANE's weekly, 3rd sources compare pakistan and india billastice missile technology by EU study.
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  5. Hasnain2009
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    Hasnain2009 SENIOR MEMBER

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    Bro CEP of all these missiles written here are wrong,
    CEP of Shaheen - II is only 100m!
  6. Hasnain2009
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    Hasnain2009 SENIOR MEMBER

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    Video abt CEP!

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  7. Oscar
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    Oscar SENIOR MODERATOR

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    Brilliant man..
    these people were nuclear scientists.. yet they came up with shaheen from nothing but textbooks from the library.
    His own testimony to me.