Election 2018

[VCheng]

Assuming that the present government is allowed to complete its term, now is the time to think ahead to the next election, to ensure they are free and fair. There was a lot of discussion on PDF after the previous elections on how to improve the election process.

Have any steps been actually carried out to prevent fraud in the next election as was alleged in the previous election? If yes, what step(s)? If not, why not? For example, recall the issues with fake ballots and how they could have been created. Why has that mechanism not been improved?

The upcoming census is an important part of this process as it will determine changes in constituencies all over the country, and lay the foundation for many changes long overdue due to changes in population.

Some might regard this thread as premature, but, given the magnitude of the task ahead, it will take this amount of time to get ready, if the nation is interested.

 

[ziaulislam]

PPPP will win sindh
PML N punjab
KPK is swing state leaning towards PMLN vs PTI vs ANP likley PML N given not dramatic improvement in governance though battle will be close
Baluchistan winner takes it as all candidates are independent

with benazir gone southern punjab is no longer swing area, therefore PPPP can no longer make central govt with ANP, MQM, so every election from here onwards, winner will be PML, unless "khan sahab" leaves PTI and a person with more holding in punjab takes over PTI

 

[Hyde]

Assuming that the present government is allowed to complete its term, now is the time to think ahead to the next election, to ensure they are free and fair. There was a lot of discussion on PDF after the previous elections on how to improve the election process.

Have any steps been actually carried out to prevent fraud in the next election as was alleged in the previous election? If yes, what step(s)? If not, why not? For example, recall the issues with fake ballots and how they could have been created. Why has that mechanism not been improved?

The upcoming census is an important part of this process as it will determine changes in constituencies all over the country, and lay the foundation for many changes long overdue due to changes in population.

Some might regard this thread as premature, but, given the magnitude of the task ahead, it will take this amount of time to get ready, if the nation is interested.

Sir the census will be useful in distribution of resources however it is unlikely to have major effect on the result of Elections 2018. I am fully aware that parties like PML-N, PPP and PML-Q are far experienced and will try to sketch constituencies that favours them the most but having looked at the map of Elections in 2013, it is quite evident that the stronghold of PML-N in Punjab and the PPP in Sindh are unlikely to be challenged regardless of the newly drawn limits of constituencies

PPPP will win sindh
PML N punjab
KPK is swing state leaning towards PMLN vs PTI vs ANP likley PML N given not dramatic improvement in governance though battle will be close
Baluchistan winner takes it as all candidates are independent

with benazir gone southern punjab is no longer swing area, therefore PPPP can no longer make central govt with ANP, MQM, so every election from here onwards, winner will be PML, unless "khan sahab" leaves PTI and a person with more holding in punjab takes over PTI

The only way PML-N can lose from here is if Nawaz Sharif is disqualified from the supreme court otherwise it will be a huge task for other parties to stand against the ruling party.

I firmly believe the results will be very similar to elections in 2013:

Punjab = PML-N wins with 20% less seats

Sindh = PPP, MQM and some impact from Jamat-e-Islami. PPP loses 20% seats

KPK = PTI wins with similar number of seats, ANP gains 20% more seats, Jamat-e-Islami gains 10% seats. JUI-F loses

Balochistan = Independent candidates wins and tilt towards the federal government

National Assembly
PML-N will lose 20% seats
PTI will gain 20% seats
PPP will lose 10% seats
ANP will gain 20% seats
MQM will lose 10% seats
Jamat-e-Islami gains 10% seats

 

[VCheng]

Sir the census will be useful in distribution of resources however it is unlikely to have major effect on the result of Elections 2018.

Thank you for that insight, but my real concerns were mentioned as following:

Have any steps been actually carried out to prevent fraud in the next election as was alleged in the previous election? If yes, what step(s)? If not, why not? For example, recall the issues with fake ballots and how they could have been created. Why has that mechanism not been improved?

 

[Hyde]

Thank you for that insight, but my real concerns were mentioned as following:

Sir the biometric system was supposed to be introduced in Elections 2013 as Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry tried his best to force election commission to introduce such technology however repeated failures by the EC and unwillingness of the governmeng lead to corruption-polluted election.

The EC had promised that future by elections will be trialed under biometric technology and 2018 elections will happen with biometric / fingerprint technology.

The bottom line is, the government wasted years to nominate new Election commissioner due to various reasons including our respectable parties like PTI, everybody in Pakistan had become contaminated and any Shareef aadmi nominated used to refuse accepting such position. So as you know the judge of the supreme court was nominated with adhoc team and the elections are coming near and no action has been taken by now which means we are going to see repeat telecast of 2013 and that is why I said PML-N will emerge with clear victory.

The biggest problem is, opposition parties are busy in other activities and not raising the matter enough... it seems like their priority is not biometric technology and they still have faith in our existing system may be so what can I say about it

 

[VCheng]

Sir the biometric system was supposed to be introduced in Elections 2013 as Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry tried his best to force election commission to introduce such technology however repeated failures by the EC and unwillingness of the governmeng lead to corruption-polluted election.

The EC had promised that future by elections will be trialed under biometric technology and 2018 elections will happen with biometric / fingerprint technology.

The bottom line is, the government wasted years to nominate new Election commissioner due to various reasons including our respectable parties like PTI, everybody in Pakistan had become contaminated and any Shareef aadmi nominated used to refuse accepting such position. So as you know the judge of the supreme court was nominated with adhoc team and the elections are coming near and no action has been taken by now which means we are going to see repeat telecast of 2013 and that is why I said PML-N will emerge with clear victory.

The biggest problem is, opposition parties are busy in other activities and not raising the matter enough... it seems like their priority is not biometric technology and they still have faith in our existing system may be so what can I say about it

That is about what I expected, so no surprises in what you have said above.

At least we can have PDF management on board when the losers of the next elections (whomever they might be) start crying foul once again, by pointing to this thread and telling them that the time to raise these issues came and went.

 

[Hyde]

That is about what I expected, so no surprises in what you have said above.

At least we can have PDF management on board when the losers of the next elections (whomever they might be) start crying foul once again, by pointing to this thread and telling them that the time to raise these issues came and went.

Sir there were only few hundred thousand voters who really thought PTI will win the election as even most PTI voters including myself knew prior to voting that they are not going to win despite voting for PTI.

The fact is, I asked few thousand people during election days and trust me the count is in thousands and not hundreds (almost every customer, everybody in neighbourhood, friends and relatives etc) that whom they are going to vote.

80% PTI voters replied by saying the party which is not going to win... and upon asking the next question they said PTI... the funny thing is, every 6 out of 10 PTI voters claimed they were not eligible to vote for elections as yet and likely to vote for first time in elections 2018... every 7 out of 10 customers gave the weird reasons for voting PML-N and it was quite clear they would win from my constituency.

It became so evident that the top brass leaders of PML-Q were doing concealed campaigning for PTI. For example one of the leader came to our house and said to my father that we know that our party cannot win the provincial assemly seat from this constituency so if you vote for us thats good otherwise vote for PTI but the only reason we are going door to door is to seek vote for National Assembly seat as it is a matter of pride for Parvez Ellahi who was deputy Prime Minister of Pakistan back those days.

There is a businessman (my distant relative and neighbour) who was pissed off with PML-N because millions of rupees were stuck in the project which PML-N had stopped after elections 2008 and he kept cursing them for 5 years as he was pretty much gone bankcupt (14 crore rupees were spent from his pocket and were supposed to receive money only upon completion of that project) and he came to my home days before election day and was all in favour of PML-Q saying the only reason he is facing severe financial crisis are because the project was approved during Q League... suddenly his opinion changed overnight when he came to vote for PTI all the way from Lahore as he was instructed by Q league to vote for them as they knew they were not going to win. He sat outside the door of the polling station all day, praying and watching everybody and came back in the evening. I asked him what does he think about the election result and he replied by saying... from 8am to 11am there were 80% voters of PTI and 20% for PML-N besides Q league voters for National Assembly. After 11am... till 5pm everybody was voting for PML-N so he assumed all the "joshile" voters lined up early in the morning and by 11am it was all about PML-N

So whatever I am seeing so far, the repeat is going to happen in my constituency during election 2018 unless that youth who were only chanting the name of Imran Khan finally appears to vote for the first time in their lifetime and the vote bank swings

 

[VCheng]

Sir there were only few hundred thousand voters who really thought PTI will win the election as even most PTI voters including myself knew prior to voting that they are not going to win despite voting for PTI.

Yes, that was the reality, but what was all that drama on PDF back then? Are we to expect another bout of hysteria in 2018?


Shall I go back and try to dig up a few choice posts? 35 "penchurs", anyone?

 

[Hyde]

Yes, that was the reality, but what was all that drama on PDF back then? Are we to expect another bout of hysteria in 2018?


Shall I go back and try to dig up a few choice posts? 35 "penchurs", anyone?

I think my views are minority from PTI voters of 2013 as they wrongly assume they had enough vote bank to defeat the ruling party (I am no longer PTI supporter anyway)

I can only give my input of the experience I had from the elections back those days as I was in Pakistan for 15 months back then. Every constituency varies from one another so some corruption is possible in other constituences but definitely not to the scale my fellow friends claimed

 

[VCheng]

I think my views are minority from PTI voters of 2013 as they wrongly assume they had enough vote bank to defeat the ruling party (I am no longer PTI supporter anyway)

I can only give my input of the experience I had from the elections back those days as I was in Pakistan for 15 months back then. Every constituency varies from one another so some corruption is possible in other constituences but definitely not to the scale my fellow friends claimed

LOL. You really should read a few historical PDF threads on this topic, just to get ready for an encore performance, if not for the entertainment value.

 

[Kabira]

There will be some important changes by next election. FATA will be merged with KPK so their seats will actually matter this time. There are also plans to give Gilgit representation in parliament. G-B will likely not have more then 6-7 seats but still can make difference. There is real chance of punjab having less then 50% of seats instead of 55% now by 2018 election.

If PTI win more seats then last time in punjab even then N league can make up the difference by winning in Balochistan, Gilgit and Hazara division of KPK.

Sindh will again vote for PPP. Karachi will either vote for MQM or PSP. Karachi may have half of sindh seats if population figures of 25 million are to be believed.

 

[notorious_eagle]

I think my views are minority from PTI voters of 2013 as they wrongly assume they had enough vote bank to defeat the ruling party (I am no longer PTI supporter anyway)

I voted for PTI in 2013, and i was under no illusion that PTI would form the Government. It was obvious that PML-N would win as PTI lacked the candidates to carry the election through. But what was obvious that PTI would have certainly won a lot more seats in Punjab than they did, and that was largely because of rigging that they were denied those seats. I am from Lahore, and i can guarantee you that there is no way PML-N won from NA124 and NA125 without massive rigging. PML-N was going to vote 2013 elections for sure but not with this margin.

But things are very different now than they were in 2013. PTI now has the candidates it can field, and they have the right electables in their party to win from a lot of constituencies in Punjab. Keep in mind that in majority of constituencies in Punjab, their are usually 3 to 4 heavy weights who have a shot of winning the election. Most of those heavy weights have gone to PTI who were not given a PML-N ticket, and this is why PTI has been loosing from PML-N in by-elections from a margin of less than 10K votes. Keep in mind that By-Elections are always won by the Government candidate, as PPP or PML-Q won during their times. For PTI to even get this close is a victory in a General Election. In 2018, i reckon its going to be an extremely tough fight between PTI and PML-N. I think they will largely get the same amount of seats from Punjab, but PML-N is likely going to form the Government with PPP's support.

The biggest bane for PML-N is going to be Rural Punjab. I have never seen the plight of our farmers this bad. Due to a reduction in support prices, and largely industrial policies, agriculture in Pakistan has severely suffered. PML-N MNA's and MPA's from Rural Punjab have been screaming for help and support, but they have largely been ignored. Expect to see a massive shift in vote bank from Rural Punjab as i can see these farmers are going to vote for the heavy weights that are in PTI now.

 

[Mrc]

When khan sahib started dharna... a real achieveable and forward looking goal would have been election reforms... instead of toppling the govt... now he has neither

 

[Soumitra]

Assuming that the present government is allowed to complete its term, now is the time to think ahead to the next election, to ensure they are free and fair. There was a lot of discussion on PDF after the previous elections on how to improve the election process.

Have any steps been actually carried out to prevent fraud in the next election as was alleged in the previous election? If yes, what step(s)? If not, why not? For example, recall the issues with fake ballots and how they could have been created. Why has that mechanism not been improved?

The upcoming census is an important part of this process as it will determine changes in constituencies all over the country, and lay the foundation for many changes long overdue due to changes in population.

Some might regard this thread as premature, but, given the magnitude of the task ahead, it will take this amount of time to get ready, if the nation is interested.

Not to troll or anything and nor do I cared whether Imran Khan wins or Nawaz Sharif but I feel that Election commission in Pakistan can take some lessons from Election Commission of India. It has vast experience in carrying out elections right from Panchayat level to Loksabha Elections. Infact the State Assembly Elections in Feb - March can be a great template for them to study. the electrorate in these elections will be equal to or even more than the entire electorate of Pakistan.

So you can send your people here to see how we conduct the elections and use those practices in your country

 

[Hyde]

I voted for PTI in 2013, and i was under no illusion that PTI would form the Government. It was obvious that PML-N would win as PTI lacked the candidates to carry the election through. But what was obvious that PTI would have certainly won a lot more seats in Punjab than they did, and that was largely because of rigging that they were denied those seats. I am from Lahore, and i can guarantee you that there is no way PML-N won from NA124 and NA125 without massive rigging. PML-N was going to vote 2013 elections for sure but not with this margin.

But things are very different now than they were in 2013. PTI now has the candidates it can field, and they have the right electables in their party to win from a lot of constituencies in Punjab. Keep in mind that in majority of constituencies in Punjab, their are usually 3 to 4 heavy weights who have a shot of winning the election. Most of those heavy weights have gone to PTI who were not given a PML-N ticket, and this is why PTI has been loosing from PML-N in by-elections from a margin of less than 10K votes. Keep in mind that By-Elections are always won by the Government candidate, as PPP or PML-Q won during their times. For PTI to even get this close is a victory in a General Election. In 2018, i reckon its going to be an extremely tough fight between PTI and PML-N. I think they will largely get the same amount of seats from Punjab, but PML-N is likely going to form the Government with PPP's support.

The biggest bane for PML-N is going to be Rural Punjab. I have never seen the plight of our farmers this bad. Due to a reduction in support prices, and largely industrial policies, agriculture in Pakistan has severely suffered. PML-N MNA's and MPA's from Rural Punjab have been screaming for help and support, but they have largely been ignored. Expect to see a massive shift in vote bank from Rural Punjab as i can see these farmers are going to vote for the heavy weights that are in PTI now.

The biggest advantage PTI have got is that the youth has finally grown up to cast the vote for the first time. Last time it was just about chanting and noises as the most PTI workers were not registered to vote. PTI also lacked experience to stand the right candidate in most of the constituencies.

I know misconduct in the election did take place but not to the scale that it could have changed results. I do agree with you that PML-N is likely to lose share of her seats from the Punjab assembly and National Assembly and that vacuum is likely to be filled by PTI but it is hard to believe under present circumstances that the vacuum will be large enough to topple the ruling government. So the bottom line is, we are likely to see the same government coming back to the power unless Nawaz Sharif is disqualified from the Supreme Court

Not to troll or anything and nor do I cared whether Imran Khan wins or Nawaz Sharif but I feel that Election commission in Pakistan can take some lessons from Election Commission of India. It has vast experience in carrying out elections right from Panchayat level to Loksabha Elections. Infact the State Assembly Elections in Feb - March can be a great template for them to study. the electrorate in these elections will be equal to or even more than the entire electorate of Pakistan.

So you can send your people here to see how we conduct the elections and use those practices in your country

It is not about learning experience I think. It is just that the ruling parties in Pakistan doesn't want to improve besides mere statements. If we really want to conduct free and fair elections, Pakistan already have the world's largest database of voters with fingerprints and according to EC about 200,000 machines were required to install across the country as a one-off payment of few billion rupees and each and every candidate will not be able to vote twice as your fingerprint will only allow you to vote for once. Just like we tap and unlock iPhone or Samsung devices.

The problem is, that was meant to happen by 2015 but we didn't nominate new election commissioner, representative from each province and then we also postponed census and didn't give funding for such project to initiate. The priority of opposition parties is not finger-print enabled electronic voting, it is the norm in our country that the ruling party is always blamed for rigging and the losing party will keep chanting for unfair results until the new elections are due. If they really wanted to improve, they had 5 years from 2013 to 2018 to introduce such technology. Nadra already have that record and technology to introduce such a system but it will not be good for losing parties as they will not be able to play blame game of being rigged.