fatman17
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Fifth Generation Fighter
Consulting a very rare official PLA statement about a future equipment programme, on 8 November 2009, PLAAF Deputy Commander Lieutenant General He Weirong told the CCTV programme "Face to Face" that China's fourth generation fighter (known as the 5th generation in the West) would be flying "soon" and that it would enter units in "about eight to ten years," or as early as 2017 to 2019. This was surprising in that at least some in the US intelligence community did not expect China's 5th generation fighter to emerge until well into the 2020s. Notably, US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates made a high profile speech in July 2009, in which he predicted that China would have no 5th generation fighters flying by 2020 and that by 2025 the US would possess many more such fighters. However, since then, Washington has revised its estimates, with Wayne Ulman of the USAF's National Air and Space Intelligence Center informing US Congress in May 2010 that the PLAAF's new aircraft was expected "around 2018".
Beyond Lieutenant General He's statement, the PLA has not released much other definitive data about the 5th generation fighter programme. Nevertheless there is a substantial body of "grey" data that allows for some speculation. Several commentaries in the Chinese press emphasise that this fighter will stress expected capabilities: supersonic cruise; stealth; advanced electronics; and high post-stall manoeuvrability, or thrust-vectored engines. According to one Chinese source, China started its 5th generation programme in 1989, adding to one theory that China's current military expansion was a Communist Party reaction to the Tiananmen Square uprising. Additional "unofficial" commentary highly touted on Chinese military-issue web pages holds that China may purchase up to 300 of these fighters and that a prototype could fly in 2010, albeit powered by 4th generation WS-10A turbofans.
Other sources have noted that an important objective for the 5th generation programme, along with matching modern U.S. and Russian capabilities, was to achieve a much higher level of technology independence. While Russia has tried to market co-development and may yet sell some new technologies to support this programme, in August 2009 a Russian source told Jane's that Russia is not assisting China's 5th generation fighter programme, in contrast to its deep involvement with India. However, what is clear is that as China has progressed in mastering 4th generation fighter and engine technologies, it has immediately applied this new knowledge to its parallel 5th generation projects. For example, Russian aerodynamic design consulting obtained to support the Chengdu J-10 was applied to 5th generation programmes. In addition, new composite material technologies and active electronically scanned array radar technology, first developed to support the J-10, have also contributed to 5th generation concepts.
At least two "heavy" fighter programmes have progressed at the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and the Chengdu Aircraft Corporation. Shenyang's design reportedly stressed twin-engine "triplane" configurations with canard, delta or a forward-swept wing, and a stabiliser. However, unofficial Chinese commentary began stressing in 2008 that Shenyang's design had fallen out of favour and the PLA had instead decided to proceed with Chengdu's twin-engine canard-delta. While the final configuration of this design is not known, in 2002 a brochure from Chengdu's 611 Aircraft Design Institute included a computer- generated image of a large canard-delta fighter. Moreover other illustrations have hinted at influences from the Russian MiG 1.44 5th generation development programme. More recent Chinese source commentary has offered that Chengdu's design may be closer to that seen in models revealed at the 2006 Zhuhai Airshow, but attributed to Shenyang. China's 5th generation design may stress a flat blended delta shape fuselage or airframe core, to which canard controls and wings are attached. This design reportedly aids supercruise and devotes more of the airframe to achieving high lift, improving take-off speed and manoeuvrability.
China may also be pursuing other 5th generation programs, to include parallel unmanned fighters. Chengdu sources have confirmed that in 2004 they began investigating the development of a F-35 class fighter, or a lightweight fifth generation design. This indicates that Chengdu may be responding to PLA requests for a lower-cost advanced fighter design and that China intends to compete for foreign sales in this aircraft sector. At the 2006 Zhuhai show, Shenyang unveiled two new advanced fighter concepts. One was a single-pilot, single-engine, stealthy forward-swept wing design with a largely flat fuselage. This appears to emphasise extreme manoeuvrability and stealth shaping in a lower-cost single-engine configuration. It may be Shenyang's attempt to compete with Chengdu's 'lower cost' F-35 design, possibly indicating that the PLAAF may have a requirement for such a lower cost fighter to compliment heavier twin-engine designs. In addition, Shenyang revealed its similarly shaped "Dark Sword" supersonic canard UCAV design. Shenyang has said nothing publicly about this but has displayed its model at other airshows. In early November 2009, a new model of the Dark Sword with an apparent thrust vectoring device, was displayed at the China Aviation Museum wing commemorating the 60th Anniversary of the PLAAF.
Success for China's 5th generation fighter will depend greatly on indigenous development of advanced turbofan engines capable of near or greater than 10-to-1 thrust to weight ratios. Engine technology has been a longstanding weakness for China's aerospace sector, but China has also devoted great resources to this sector. After considerable difficulty, the Shenyang Engine Group-led 12-to-13-ton thrust WS-10A "4th generation" turbofan is entering production. While the Shenyang Engine group may have a 15-ton version of this engine in development, the Chengdu Engine Group may be leading the development of the WS-15, a 15+ ton thrust engine. In late 2009, a Russian source told Jane's that China has a 18-ton thrust engine programme underway, which would be comparable to the Pratt Whitney F135 engine that will power the Lockheed-Martin F-35. In August 2009, Ukrainian sources told Jane's that the Motor Sich concern was pursuing an engine co-development programme with China that would result in a second 15-ton class fighter engine. Supporting this, Chinese sources have suggested that Motor Sich would be co-operating with an engine design bureau associated with Chengdu.
Jane's
Consulting a very rare official PLA statement about a future equipment programme, on 8 November 2009, PLAAF Deputy Commander Lieutenant General He Weirong told the CCTV programme "Face to Face" that China's fourth generation fighter (known as the 5th generation in the West) would be flying "soon" and that it would enter units in "about eight to ten years," or as early as 2017 to 2019. This was surprising in that at least some in the US intelligence community did not expect China's 5th generation fighter to emerge until well into the 2020s. Notably, US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates made a high profile speech in July 2009, in which he predicted that China would have no 5th generation fighters flying by 2020 and that by 2025 the US would possess many more such fighters. However, since then, Washington has revised its estimates, with Wayne Ulman of the USAF's National Air and Space Intelligence Center informing US Congress in May 2010 that the PLAAF's new aircraft was expected "around 2018".
Beyond Lieutenant General He's statement, the PLA has not released much other definitive data about the 5th generation fighter programme. Nevertheless there is a substantial body of "grey" data that allows for some speculation. Several commentaries in the Chinese press emphasise that this fighter will stress expected capabilities: supersonic cruise; stealth; advanced electronics; and high post-stall manoeuvrability, or thrust-vectored engines. According to one Chinese source, China started its 5th generation programme in 1989, adding to one theory that China's current military expansion was a Communist Party reaction to the Tiananmen Square uprising. Additional "unofficial" commentary highly touted on Chinese military-issue web pages holds that China may purchase up to 300 of these fighters and that a prototype could fly in 2010, albeit powered by 4th generation WS-10A turbofans.
Other sources have noted that an important objective for the 5th generation programme, along with matching modern U.S. and Russian capabilities, was to achieve a much higher level of technology independence. While Russia has tried to market co-development and may yet sell some new technologies to support this programme, in August 2009 a Russian source told Jane's that Russia is not assisting China's 5th generation fighter programme, in contrast to its deep involvement with India. However, what is clear is that as China has progressed in mastering 4th generation fighter and engine technologies, it has immediately applied this new knowledge to its parallel 5th generation projects. For example, Russian aerodynamic design consulting obtained to support the Chengdu J-10 was applied to 5th generation programmes. In addition, new composite material technologies and active electronically scanned array radar technology, first developed to support the J-10, have also contributed to 5th generation concepts.
At least two "heavy" fighter programmes have progressed at the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and the Chengdu Aircraft Corporation. Shenyang's design reportedly stressed twin-engine "triplane" configurations with canard, delta or a forward-swept wing, and a stabiliser. However, unofficial Chinese commentary began stressing in 2008 that Shenyang's design had fallen out of favour and the PLA had instead decided to proceed with Chengdu's twin-engine canard-delta. While the final configuration of this design is not known, in 2002 a brochure from Chengdu's 611 Aircraft Design Institute included a computer- generated image of a large canard-delta fighter. Moreover other illustrations have hinted at influences from the Russian MiG 1.44 5th generation development programme. More recent Chinese source commentary has offered that Chengdu's design may be closer to that seen in models revealed at the 2006 Zhuhai Airshow, but attributed to Shenyang. China's 5th generation design may stress a flat blended delta shape fuselage or airframe core, to which canard controls and wings are attached. This design reportedly aids supercruise and devotes more of the airframe to achieving high lift, improving take-off speed and manoeuvrability.
China may also be pursuing other 5th generation programs, to include parallel unmanned fighters. Chengdu sources have confirmed that in 2004 they began investigating the development of a F-35 class fighter, or a lightweight fifth generation design. This indicates that Chengdu may be responding to PLA requests for a lower-cost advanced fighter design and that China intends to compete for foreign sales in this aircraft sector. At the 2006 Zhuhai show, Shenyang unveiled two new advanced fighter concepts. One was a single-pilot, single-engine, stealthy forward-swept wing design with a largely flat fuselage. This appears to emphasise extreme manoeuvrability and stealth shaping in a lower-cost single-engine configuration. It may be Shenyang's attempt to compete with Chengdu's 'lower cost' F-35 design, possibly indicating that the PLAAF may have a requirement for such a lower cost fighter to compliment heavier twin-engine designs. In addition, Shenyang revealed its similarly shaped "Dark Sword" supersonic canard UCAV design. Shenyang has said nothing publicly about this but has displayed its model at other airshows. In early November 2009, a new model of the Dark Sword with an apparent thrust vectoring device, was displayed at the China Aviation Museum wing commemorating the 60th Anniversary of the PLAAF.
Success for China's 5th generation fighter will depend greatly on indigenous development of advanced turbofan engines capable of near or greater than 10-to-1 thrust to weight ratios. Engine technology has been a longstanding weakness for China's aerospace sector, but China has also devoted great resources to this sector. After considerable difficulty, the Shenyang Engine Group-led 12-to-13-ton thrust WS-10A "4th generation" turbofan is entering production. While the Shenyang Engine group may have a 15-ton version of this engine in development, the Chengdu Engine Group may be leading the development of the WS-15, a 15+ ton thrust engine. In late 2009, a Russian source told Jane's that China has a 18-ton thrust engine programme underway, which would be comparable to the Pratt Whitney F135 engine that will power the Lockheed-Martin F-35. In August 2009, Ukrainian sources told Jane's that the Motor Sich concern was pursuing an engine co-development programme with China that would result in a second 15-ton class fighter engine. Supporting this, Chinese sources have suggested that Motor Sich would be co-operating with an engine design bureau associated with Chengdu.
Jane's
