China adds 500 billion yuan in stimulus

[Raphael]

China Joins ECB in Adding Stimulus as Fed Scales Back - Bloomberg

China’s central bank joined its European counterpart in boosting liquidity to address weakening growth, underscoring a divergence in direction among the world’s biggest economies as the U.S. reduces stimulus.

The People’s Bank of China is injecting 500 billion yuan ($81 billion) into the nation’s largest banks, according to a government official familiar with the matter, signaling the deepest concern yet with an economic slowdown. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will announce another $10 billion cut to its monthly bond purchases after this week’s meeting, economists forecast, as she steers toward gradual interest-rate increases.

China’s credit expansion builds on targeted measures to shore up growth while stopping short of broad-based stimulus seen in the U.S. in the wake of the global financial crisis and still being pushed in Europe and Japan. By attaching a three-month term to its injection, China is taking a step down that path while maintaining control of a process designed to fuel demand for credit in an already debt-laden economy.

“It’s like quantitative easing with Chinese characteristics,” said Louis Kuijs, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc’s chief Greater China economist in Hong Kong, who formerly worked at the World Bank. “The threat is that growth is slowing down below the comfort level of policy makers and that will then also warrant further easing steps.”


Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg
Passengers on a ferry look at buildings in the Lujiazui district at dusk in Shanghai.

The PBOC will funnel 100 billion yuan each to the five biggest banks for a three-month period, said the official, who asked not to be identified because the measure hasn’t been formally announced.

‘Easing Stance’
“It shows China’s monetary policy is leaning toward easing, and the easing stance may last throughout next year,” said Hua Changchun, a China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong. The lack of an official announcement shows that the PBOC “doesn’t want to send a strong signal” of policy easing, Hua said.

The Sina.com website earlier reported the injection and the PBOC didn’t respond to faxed questions.

Bank stocks rallied in Hong Kong, the yuan halted a four-day slide and one-year interest-rate swaps dropped to the lowest since June.

Not all analysts saw the move as policy stimulus. Chang Jian, chief China economist at Barclays Plc in Hong Kong, said it was “a normal liquidity operation.”

The injection is “mainly aimed at providing liquidity to pre-empt potential liquidity shortages in the banking system in the coming weeks,” Chang wrote. Cash needs for the coming National Day holiday, along with initial public offerings of stock, are among the reasons she cited.


Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg
A man walks past the People's Bank of China (PBOC) headquarters in Beijing, China, on... Read More

Slowdown Signs
The weakest industrial-output expansion since the global financial crisis and moderating investment and retail sales growth shown in data released Sept. 13 underscored risks of a deepening economic slowdown. Those readings followed a second straight drop in imports and a 40 percent decline in the broadest measure of new credit for August, as well as indicators showing a manufacturing pullback.

The injection marks “the first clear policy response to weak August data” on the economy, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists including Beijing-basedSong Yu wrote in a research note. “We expect monetary conditions to loosen modestly, which will provide some much-needed support for demand growth. Other policies may follow.”

Further steps may include accelerating planned fiscal spending, the Goldman analysts wrote. They estimated that the 500 billion yuan extension of funds through the standing lending facility, or SLF, is roughly equivalent to a half percentage-point cut in the reserve ratio, though such moves tend to have a larger impact.

Biggest Banks
The five largest banks are Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., Agricultural Bank of China Ltd., China Construction Bank Corp., Bank of China Ltd. and Bank of Communications Co. Press officers at the five lenders declined to comment.

“With growth slowing and regulators cracking down on shadow banking, it seems like the PBOC is trying to cut costs for preferred borrowers and sectors without reflating the property sector,” David Loevinger, former U.S. Treasury Department senior coordinator for China affairs and now a Los Angeles-based analyst at TCW Group Inc., said in an e-mail. “But it risks stepping back from a more market-based allocation of credit, which China sorely needs.”

The injection of funds underscored how the PBOC has yet to adopt the type of communication practices followed by its counterparts among the world’s largest economies. The European Central Bank, Fed and Bank of Japan typically issue press releases for significant policy actions.

Draghi, Kuroda
ECB President Mario Draghi this month announced a final round of interest-rate cuts and a plan to buy privately owned securities as he seeks to revive inflation in the 18-nation euro area. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda this month assured his prime minister he would do what’s needed to achieve an inflation target as he continues unprecedented easing.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said last week that the government can’t rely on monetary stimulus to spur economic growth. Yet like counterparts in Europe and Japan, he faces constraints from moderating tax-revenue gains.

In a speech at the World Economic Forum in the northern Chinese city of Tianjin earlier this month, Lisaid the government won’t be distracted by short-term fluctuations in individual economic indicators and will maintain its focus on structural adjustments and dealing with long-term issues.

‘Pessimistic Tone’
“A pessimistic tone that China may miss its whole-year economic growth target and the government needs to adopt strong stimulus measures such as an interest rate cut is getting louder,” according to a commentary by the official Xinhua news agency published yesterday. “These noises emerge repeatedly because: on one hand, they are not seeing the New Normal in China’s economy, and on the other hand, they are showing distrust in China’s reforms.”

Before the latest action, the central bank had made two targeted reductions in reserve ratios after instructions from the State Council, China’s cabinet. The first, in April, applied to some small rural banks and the second, detailed by the PBOC in June, covered most city commercial banks and non-county-level rural commercial banks and cooperatives.

“The PBOC has left itself a lot of flexibility,” Hu Yifan, chief economist at Haitong International Securities Co. in Hong Kong, said by phone. The injection has the same result as a reduction in the reserve-requirement ratio while being “more controllable,” she said.

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

‘Pessimistic Tone’
“A pessimistic tone that China may miss its whole-year economic growth target and the government needs to adopt strong stimulus measures such as an interest rate cut is getting louder,” according to a commentary by the official Xinhua news agency published yesterday. “These noises emerge repeatedly because: on one hand, they are not seeing the New Normal in China’s economy, and on the other hand, they are showing distrust in China’s reforms.”

The same can be said of bank analysts, apparently. I am ashamed of these guys--a little slowdown, and they start screaming for more fiscal and monetary expansion.

Economists React: PBOC Injection Fails to Impress - Real Time Economics - WSJ

• 

• September 17, 2014, 12:23 AM ET

Economists React: PBOC Injection Fails to Impress
ByWSJ Staff

A commuter walks past the People’s Bank Of China.
Bloomberg
China’s decision makers yet again resisted pressure to significantly ease monetary policy and instead injected 500 billion yuan ($81 billion) in liquidity into the country’s five major state-owned banks as part of its push to counter a worse-than-expected slowdown in the world’s No. 2 economy.

The move was equivalent to a roughly 0.5-percentage-point cut in the amount of reserves China’s commercial banks set aside with the central bank. But many economists question whether such targeted measures are the right policy.

Several economists weigh in on the impacts of the injection and what to expect from Beijing next (edited slightly for style and clarity):

Previously, the government reacted with policy easing before the Li Keqiang Index dropped to this level. This year Chinese policy-makers seem more reluctant to adopt broad-based easing as they try to avoid stimulating the economy, but it appears to have only delayed the action…we believe broad-based policy rate cuts would be more transparent and effective than the implicit reserve-requirement ratio cut in order to bring down the cost of capital. We continue to expect three policy-rate cuts from now into the first half of 2015. –Minggao Shen, Shuang Ding, Citigroup

The move will unlikely boost market sentiment as it will not effectively improve demand for loans. We’re not supportive of this continuous use of targeted easing. They need something bigger to turn market sentiment around. It’s not fair for [policy makers] to blame high debt levels simply on previous cuts of reserve-requirement ratio and interest rates. There are other problems, like the state monopoly of the banking sector, lack of interest-rate liberalization and the unreasonable timings of previous moves. –Li Wei, Standard Chartered

It also shows that policy makers are resisting the pressure to cut rates or RRR universally by opting for such conditional easing. While both [Standing Lending Facility] and RRR cuts should be seen as monetary easing, the former is a more contained measure with liquidity provided for three months each time (can be rolled over afterwards) that keeps the rein in the central bank’s hand. In comparison, SLF also has a much more muted signaling impact, which is seen as less harmful against the administration’s pro-reform image. Going forward, we think it is still going to be “more targeted easing, for now.” The hope for a rate cut is slim unless growth deceleration continues. –Helen Qiao, Sun Junwei, Zhang Yin, Morgan Stanley

While we believe that the timing for injection is right, the tool is less than ideal. The PBOC has increasingly been relying on the less transparent and more discretionary policy tools for liquidity management. As a general tool, we believe the SLF should not replace the role of traditional monetary policy tools such as changing the RRR and open market operations. The SLF is biased toward certain market participants, and is thus a step back in China’s financial market reforms. The SLF process creates base money and is akin to printing money. Thus, in our view, not the proper use of a tool the PBOC’s says is a “last-resort” mechanism. –Shen Jianguang, Michael Luk, Mizuho

–Compiled by Liyan Qi

 

[bolo]

"Several economists weigh in on the impacts of the injection and what to expect from Beijing next (edited slightly for style and clarity"

Who cares what some Chinese economist working for foreign banks think. Chinese government will do what is best for their situation. Wall Street only cares about the stock market and very little else about the true health of the economy.

It's because the $500b stimulus did not make US markets go up, so they are upset.

 

[Beidou2020]

"Several economists weigh in on the impacts of the injection and what to expect from Beijing next (edited slightly for style and clarity"

Who cares what some Chinese economist working for foreign banks think. Chinese government will do what is best for their situation. Wall Street only cares about the stock market and very little else about the true health of the economy.

It's because the $500b stimulus did not make US markets go up, so they are upset.

Chinese government knows more about how to manage the Chinese economy than a bunch of morons in the West predicting collapse every few weeks for the past 35 years.

'Western' analysts, think tanks, pundits, economists, investors have been wrong for 35 years on China and they expect us to believe them over the Chinese government that has actually been the ones gradually developing the economy and doing a good job.

I will back the Chinese government actions over everyone. 35 years of solid development is enough proof for me that the government and the people that advise the government knows what they are doing.