Afghanistan - Alternative futures and their implications.

[Side-Winder]

The research paper below was authored by Major General Naveed Mukhtar in 2011. It was published in the quarterly magazine Parameters by the Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College, of which Major General Mukhtar is an alumnus.

He is an illustrious officer from the Pakistan Army's Armored Corps who has commanded a Mechanized Division. He is a graduate of the Pakistan Military Academy; Ecole D’ Application De L’ Arme Blindee Et De La Cavalerie, France; Command and Staff College, Pakistan; Joint Command and Staff College, Philippines; National Defense University, Pakistan; and the United States Army War College (USAWC). He also holds two master degrees in War Studies and Strategic Studies. General Naveed has served in a variety of command and staff positions at nearly every level during peace and conflict.

At present, Major General Naveed Mukhtar is serving in Pakistan's premier spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), as head of the Counter Terrorism Directorate (CT Dte).

The purpose of sharing this publication is to provide an insight into the Pakistani perspective on Afghanistan's possible future scenarios, keeping in mind its utmost relevance after the signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) between the US and Afghan governments.

All copyrights are reserved by the US Army War College/Strategic Studies Institute.

 

[Side-Winder]

 

[AUz]

General seems a very well-educated, and insightful man.

Good to see that Pakistan has Pakistan Military's Chain of Command has well-versed, highly competent, and experienced commanders like Naveed Mukhtar.

 

[VCheng]

Conclusions:

"Moderate Taliban must be accommodated as part of that governance structure, especially in select areas ...."

'USA needs to .... adopt a firm approach that dissuades regional actors from taking provocative actions to intervene in Afghanistan's internal affairs..."

Translation: USA should stop India from preventing Pakistan trying to install its preferred Taliban groups.

The wishful thinking continues on part of Pakistan.

 

[Capt.Popeye]

Conclusions:

"Moderate Taliban must be accommodated as part of that governance structure, especially in select areas ...."

'USA needs to .... adopt a firm approach that dissuades regional actors from taking provocative actions to intervene in Afghanistan's internal affairs..."

Translation: USA should stop India from preventing Pakistan trying to install its preferred Taliban groups.

The wishful thinking continues on part of Pakistan.

Ah well..... the "fabled mindset" of 'Good Taliban and Bad Taliban' still seems to continue in some minds yet!

Who know.........even that loony idea of "Strategic Depth" may still be around then?

But OTOH, this article is from 2011; so wiser thinking may have taken over. Who knows?

 

[VCheng]

Ah well..... the "fabled mindset" of 'Good Taliban and Bad Taliban' still seems to continue in some minds yet!

Who know.........even that loony idea of "Strategic Depth" may still be around then?

But OTOH, this article is from 2011; so wiser thinking may have taken over. Who knows?

Over six decades of fossilized thinking cannot be changed in a mere three years.

 

[Capt.Popeye]

Over six decades of fossilized thinking cannot be changed in a mere three years.

Umm, yes; probably we have to be sanguine enough to accept that is how things are. However, I do tend to try to be optimistic.

As a Wise Man (not me, but Einstein) said:
"An Insane Man is one who keeps doing the very same thing over and over again; but hopes for different results each time".
I was hoping that Syndrome has got cured over time. Even more so considering that it has never worked...........and is not even likely to work in the future. I was simply hoping that 'Insanity' has either got cured, or that succeeding Generations of those guys have gotten cured..........

 

[SQ8]

Umm, yes; probably we have to be sanguine enough to accept that is how things are. However, I do tend to try to be optimistic.

As a Wise Man (not me, but Einstein) said:
"An Insane Man is one who keeps doing the very same thing over and over again; but hopes for different results each time".
I was hoping that Syndrome has got cured over time. Even more so considering that it has never worked...........and is not even likely to work in the future. I was simply hoping that 'Insanity' has either got cured, or that succeeding Generations of those guys have gotten cured..........

The cure(democracy) was never allowed to culture itself. Moreover, it not like the surrounding conditions within the neighbourhood helped it along. As remarked by a top brass decision maker to me, the problems of Pakistan would have ended a long time ago had it been somewhere near Chile or Bolivia. The change is afoot, little by little.. the realization is setting in on an individual level. But the collective paranoia, not just of the idea of being eaten up by India.. but rather the fear that if "I float the idea I will be outcast" is paramount. I have met five different people in the higher echelons who echo clearly that while the proxy war waged by India and vice versa exists.. India is not the biggest problem for us. Yet, these views will be suppressed when they all put their heads together since neither will want to look "bad" in front of the others for advocating a more out of the box approach to ending this useless acrimony between the two nations.

And so, the mad cycle will go on. .. but with each cycle.. as long as education and democracy continue to take hold, the amplitude of the cycle will reduce till it eventually dies out.

 

[Capt.Popeye]

The cure(democracy) was never allowed to culture itself. Moreover, it not like the surrounding conditions within the neighbourhood helped it along. As remarked by a top brass decision maker to me, the problems of Pakistan would have ended a long time ago had it been somewhere near Chile or Bolivia. The change is afoot, little by little.. the realization is setting in on an individual level. But the collective paranoia, not just of the idea of being eaten up by India.. but rather the fear that if "I float the idea I will be outcast" is paramount. I have met five different people in the higher echelons who echo clearly that while the proxy war waged by India and vice versa exists.. India is not the biggest problem for us. Yet, these views will be suppressed when they all put their heads together since neither will want to look "bad" in front of the others for advocating a more out of the box approach to ending this useless acrimony between the two nations.

And so, the mad cycle will go on. .. but with each cycle.. as long as education and democracy continue to take hold, the amplitude of the cycle will reduce till it eventually dies out.

By and large, @Oscar; I'll have to agree with that.
But that is the point that really absolutely mystifies me. That Democracy was never allowed to take root in Pakistan over such a long period. I know for a fact (even based/validated on interactions during visits to Pakistan); that there is a substantial percentage of right-thinking, rational headed and aspirational people in Pakistan. Who were only committed to wanting to see the best happen to their nation. Then how or why did they allow or become side-lined?
On another thread; there is a discussion on "Is Jinnah's Pakistan existing"? I'd say with a certainty (not just based on reading General Stuff about him, but after accessing the journal/notes of somebody of my family, who knew him very well) that Mr.Jinnah would cringe to see the condition of the country that he helped create. Which is why I have said on this forum (time and again) that Pakistan has turned out to be a "Bonsai State".

Only Fools,Liars and Charlatans can be persuaded that India is the cause of this state of affairs in Pakistan.

Just as there was a period in India when politicians (including the redoubtable Indira Gandhi) sought to convince Indians that some (imaginary) "Foreign Hand" was responsible for all that was going wrong. Maybe that is why IG selected the "hand" as the symbol for her party......
But luckily that passed away with the advocates of that canard.

There has to be sometime a Nation's existence; when its people "have to grow up and take ownership of their lives, and act in a manner befitting".
For Pakistanis, that time has already come..... assuming that it had not come earlier!

 

[VCheng]

There has to be sometime a Nation's existence; when its people "have to grow up and take ownership of their lives, and act in a manner befitting".
For Pakistanis, that time has already come..... assuming that it had not come earlier!
But luckily that passed away with the advocates of that canard.

Yes, that is a great hope, but history tells us that for some nations, such a time never comes and they fade into nothing.

 

[SQ8]

By and large, @Oscar; I'll have to agree with that.
But that is the point that really absolutely mystifies me. That Democracy was never allowed to take root in Pakistan over such a long period. I know for a fact (even based/validated on interactions during visits to Pakistan); that there is a substantial percentage of right-thinking, rational headed and aspirational people in Pakistan. Who were only committed to wanting to see the best happen to their nation. Then how or why did they allow or become side-lined?
On another thread; there is a discussion on "Is Jinnah's Pakistan existing"? I'd say with a certainty (not just based on reading General Stuff about him, but after accessing the journal/notes of somebody of my family, who knew him very well) that Mr.Jinnah would cringe to see the condition of the country that he helped create. Which is why I have said on this forum (time and again) that Pakistan has turned out to be a "Bonsai State".

Only Fools,Liars and Charlatans can be persuaded that India is the cause of this state of affairs in Pakistan.

Just as there was a period in India when politicians (including the redoubtable Indira Gandhi) sought to convince Indians that some (imaginary) "Foreign Hand" was responsible for all that was going wrong. Maybe that is why IG selected the "hand" as the symbol for her party......
But luckily that passed away with the advocates of that canard.

There has to be sometime a Nation's existence; when its people "have to grow up and take ownership of their lives, and act in a manner befitting".
For Pakistanis, that time has already come..... assuming that it had not come earlier!

There is a reason for the side-lining. That was the nexus that formed over the years of Feudal -military - Mullah. The former two bonded first with the latter joining up under Zai-ul-haq. Each ensuring that in times of need the other helps the survival of one with mutual benefits. The only people to keep them in check are checkmated before they are able to gain strength.. and that started with M.A Jinnah. He was essentially checkmated by his compatriots while on his death bed.

To truly say this..and Im not sure if many(if not most) Indians will outright disagree with me, if India was truly capable of finishing Pakistan off for good or ending it as a trouble spot; would it not have done so years ago? The simple fact is that India cannot do so without intractable damage to itself in the process. Leave all the proxy wars aside, I believe that somewhere after 2001 a group(or a single person.. in that case he/she deserves the Maha Vir Chakra) figured after scratching their heads that all the effort to fight Pakistan tit for tat in a proxy war is completely wasted. "Wait a minute!, these guys will destroy themselves over us, so why the heck have we been working so hard like complete Ch#####s??" .That is exactly what was happening; and today.. I can tell you... from a first hand account that right now a large section of Pakistani military/establishment leadership has exactly this idea when they think of terrorists. They are saying this verbatim with this look on their face:

So , I do see positives here. I see the change is now taking place.. the real enemy is being recognized. Not just for us, but for the entire subcontinent.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

Translation: USA should stop India from preventing Pakistan trying to install its preferred Taliban groups.

The wishful thinking continues on part of Pakistan.

Guilty as charged. and we will continue with that in order to prevent any hostile country from installing a group that offers places like Kunar and Nooristan as safe heavens. its a two way "wishful" thinking , if Pakistan is to deny its land from being used against other countries then it should expect the same.
Cuba Missile crises anyone?

 

[VCheng]

Guilty as charged. and we will continue with that in order to prevent any hostile country from installing a group that offers places like Kunar and Nooristan as safe heavens. its a two way "wishful" thinking , if Pakistan is to deny its land from being used against other countries then it should expect the same.
Cuba Missile crises anyone?

Of course, please go ahead. Just don't expect others to pay for it, or to make it easy. Fair enough?

 

[Irfan Baloch]

.

the snakes that bite us were never bred by us.. they are the new phenomenon. the ones that have fought Afghan Jihad and Kashmir Jihad kept themselves there.

the ones that are fighting the state of Pakistan have NONE... No experience in Kashmir and Afghanistan and also no interest as well.

I will like to know the Kashmir and Afghan war experience of Mullah Fazlullah or Hakim Ullah Mehsood or that Baramdagh Bugti... all such snakes are fed and pampered by those who have the world record of opening the most "cultural centers" per square miles along the borders in areas where there is hardly any population, local or foreign.


Indian bitching starts and ends with Hafiz Saeed... apart from trolling Indians in the protest rallies and distributing food and clothes to flood victims and IDP I will like to know how Hafiz Saeed has bitten us?

Of course, please go ahead. Just don't expect others to pay for it, or to make it easy. Fair enough?

of course all is fair in love and more love
we never expect too much anyway. and can play this game really easily...
just watch this space.

Ah well..... the "fabled mindset" of 'Good Taliban and Bad Taliban' still seems to continue in some minds yet!

Who know.........even that loony idea of "Strategic Depth" may still be around then?

But OTOH, this article is from 2011; so wiser thinking may have taken over. Who knows?

very simple

if the Afghan Taliban only want to pick their fights within Afghanistan then thats very good. we dont want to know

but if they or anyone else wants to pick a fight here and get help from specially setup camps then we consider it bad and we will hunt them up to Afghanistan like we have done it recently very successfully few times.

 

[SQ8]

the snakes that bite us were never bred by us.. they are the new phenomenon. the ones that have fought Afghan Jihad and Kashmir Jihad kept themselves there.

the ones that are fighting the state of Pakistan have NONE... No experience in Kashmir and Afghanistan and also no interest as well.

I will like to know the Kashmir and Afghan war experience of Mullah Fazlullah or Hakim Ullah Mehsood or that Baramdagh Bugti... all such snakes are fed and pampered by those who have the world record of opening the most "cultural centers" per square miles along the borders in areas where there is hardly any population, local or foreign.


Indian bitching starts and ends with Hafiz Saeed... apart from trolling Indians in the protest rallies and distributing food and clothes to flood victims and IDP I will like to know how Hafiz Saeed has bitten us?.

They are from the same existing snake factories. The same process, the same training regime's. It is absurd to think that a veteran of the Afghan war(although they too fought against us in the early stages of 2003) will be with Fazlullah..those guys are in their 60s. The pampering of the snakes may be, but all that those are is just more fertile soil for an ideology and breed that we began. The "foreign hands" did not start this breed, we did. All they are doing is clapping with glee and the lapping up the technically free lunch we gave them on taking our nation apart.