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2014: Europe in four crises
By Shen Xiaoquan
December 22, 2014
Looking back over 2014, Europe has become a hot spot with continuous bad news. Both in terms of politics and security, Europe has been trapped in crisis that is difficult to get rid of.
Looking back over 2014, Europe has become a hot spot with continuous bad news. Both in terms of politics and security, Europe has been trapped in crisis that is difficult to get rid of.
The crisis in Europe is mainly in four aspects:
First, a gloomy economic prospect.
Although the European debt crisis which broke out in 2010 is over, the expected economic recovery did not come. The negative factors, including the impacts of the debt crisis, difficulties in structural reform, the restraining effects of the coercive financial retrenchment and the impact of the Ukraine crisis upon the trade environment, kept European economic growth low. At the beginning of the second quarter this year, the Eurozone dropped into stagnancy with zero growth.
Germany, as the biggest economic power in the European Union (EU), can barely handle the perilous current economic and trade situation although it outshined the other European economies in the debt crisis. Foreign trade is its pillar industry. Its trade with Russia and East European countries makes up a large proportion of its economy. Unfortunately, the Western sanctions on Russia directly brought Germany's trade with these countries into stagnancy and even caused it to shrink. The worsening external environment restrained Germany's economic growth.
France is in a worse situation. The continuously increasing debt and deficit is a particularly prominent problem, making it a "bad student" in the Eurozone. According to the French authorities in September, the government's financial deficit will rise from 4.3 percent last year to 4.4 percent this year, and will remain at 4.3 percent in 2015, surpassing the warning line in the Eurozone of 3 percent.
Based on the economic situation in Europe, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned in October that there was a four in 10 chance the Eurozone would slide into the third recession since the financial crisis. The Economist said in an article that the most dangerous economic problem for the world is in Europe.
Second, the spread of far-rightist thoughts
Worsening economic and social crisis has resulted in frustration and a loss of confidence among the public. The political demonstration of this is the spread of far-rightist thoughts and "anti-EU" influences. In the European Parliament election in May 2014, the National Front in France and the UK Independence Party in Britain, which are famous for being anti-EU, won breakthrough victories. It is clear how much support the EU has lost from the people.
Third, separatism has become popular
Sept. 18 was a special day when the whole of Europe held its breath waiting for the result of the Scottish independence referendum. It was a significant historical moment for both Britain and Europe. If the independence parties won, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland would announce its disassembly. If the United Kingdom disassembled, the EU would suffer a great political setback. Besides, movements for independence and separatism have also been witnessed in Catalonia in Spain, and the domino effect cannot be neglected. Luckily, the independence parties failed the referendum, and the United Kingdom was not finally broken up.
Having just walked out of the crisis of Scottish independence, British Prime Minister David Cameron delivered a threat to the EU that a referendum would be held at the end of 2017 to decide whether Britain would remain in the EU. This demonstrates how powerful and stubborn the "Europe skeptics" are in Britain. While separatism is prevailing, the lack of cohesion in the EU is an undoubted fact. The future integration of Europe is at risk.
And fourth, heavy blow of the Ukraine Crisis
For a long time, Europe has maintained the post-war security structure. Although there had been the Cold War where the East and West were at a stalemate, Europe basically remained peaceful after the war, ensuring the sanctity of state sovereignty, that is: borders cannot be changed by force. The Ukraine Crisis overthrew this basic situation in both aspects. What worries Europe most is the separation of Ukraine and Crimea changing hands. And the most heart-breaking thing is that it cannot do anything looking at the flames of war in Ukraine.
Facing the Ukraine Crisis, Europe evidently lacks strength in confronting Russia. Therefore, the United States has put "Pivot to Europe" on its agenda. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) intensified its military arrangements while the United States carried out fortified sanction measures, upgrading the confrontation between the West and Moscow. The press is crying out in alarm: Europe is falling into a new cold war. Europe, standing between the United States and Russia, is in a dilemma. Although it is against what Russia does, it hopes that Russia can participate in the political settlement of the Ukraine Crisis. Europe's appeal for safety is to put out the flames of war in Ukraine instead of being an enemy of Russia. But what the United States is doing has undoubtedly pitted Europe against Russia. On the issue of sanctions, Europe has to take its own economic benefits and safety into consideration. Besides, the "new Europe," standing beside the United States, is putting pressure on the "old Europe." The EU is really at a dilemma about whether to continue or retreat.
The above four points reflect the harsh reality in Europe: The traditional security structure is broken. Like the Cold War era, Europe is once again on the front line where the West is in an overall confrontation with Russia. This runs against Europe's security design after the end of the Cold War. Europe worries whether the U.S. "Pivot to Europe" can provide a reliable guarantee of security while its own defense structure is still an armchair strategy without even a common diplomatic safety policy. In addition, it has to suffer further from the weakening and unpredictable economic recovery. Therefore, the influence of Europe in international affairs will inevitably be restrained and weakened in the future.
The writer is a researcher at the World Research Center.
By Shen Xiaoquan
December 22, 2014
Looking back over 2014, Europe has become a hot spot with continuous bad news. Both in terms of politics and security, Europe has been trapped in crisis that is difficult to get rid of.
Looking back over 2014, Europe has become a hot spot with continuous bad news. Both in terms of politics and security, Europe has been trapped in crisis that is difficult to get rid of.
The crisis in Europe is mainly in four aspects:
First, a gloomy economic prospect.
Although the European debt crisis which broke out in 2010 is over, the expected economic recovery did not come. The negative factors, including the impacts of the debt crisis, difficulties in structural reform, the restraining effects of the coercive financial retrenchment and the impact of the Ukraine crisis upon the trade environment, kept European economic growth low. At the beginning of the second quarter this year, the Eurozone dropped into stagnancy with zero growth.
Germany, as the biggest economic power in the European Union (EU), can barely handle the perilous current economic and trade situation although it outshined the other European economies in the debt crisis. Foreign trade is its pillar industry. Its trade with Russia and East European countries makes up a large proportion of its economy. Unfortunately, the Western sanctions on Russia directly brought Germany's trade with these countries into stagnancy and even caused it to shrink. The worsening external environment restrained Germany's economic growth.
France is in a worse situation. The continuously increasing debt and deficit is a particularly prominent problem, making it a "bad student" in the Eurozone. According to the French authorities in September, the government's financial deficit will rise from 4.3 percent last year to 4.4 percent this year, and will remain at 4.3 percent in 2015, surpassing the warning line in the Eurozone of 3 percent.
Based on the economic situation in Europe, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned in October that there was a four in 10 chance the Eurozone would slide into the third recession since the financial crisis. The Economist said in an article that the most dangerous economic problem for the world is in Europe.
Second, the spread of far-rightist thoughts
Worsening economic and social crisis has resulted in frustration and a loss of confidence among the public. The political demonstration of this is the spread of far-rightist thoughts and "anti-EU" influences. In the European Parliament election in May 2014, the National Front in France and the UK Independence Party in Britain, which are famous for being anti-EU, won breakthrough victories. It is clear how much support the EU has lost from the people.
Third, separatism has become popular
Sept. 18 was a special day when the whole of Europe held its breath waiting for the result of the Scottish independence referendum. It was a significant historical moment for both Britain and Europe. If the independence parties won, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland would announce its disassembly. If the United Kingdom disassembled, the EU would suffer a great political setback. Besides, movements for independence and separatism have also been witnessed in Catalonia in Spain, and the domino effect cannot be neglected. Luckily, the independence parties failed the referendum, and the United Kingdom was not finally broken up.
Having just walked out of the crisis of Scottish independence, British Prime Minister David Cameron delivered a threat to the EU that a referendum would be held at the end of 2017 to decide whether Britain would remain in the EU. This demonstrates how powerful and stubborn the "Europe skeptics" are in Britain. While separatism is prevailing, the lack of cohesion in the EU is an undoubted fact. The future integration of Europe is at risk.
And fourth, heavy blow of the Ukraine Crisis
For a long time, Europe has maintained the post-war security structure. Although there had been the Cold War where the East and West were at a stalemate, Europe basically remained peaceful after the war, ensuring the sanctity of state sovereignty, that is: borders cannot be changed by force. The Ukraine Crisis overthrew this basic situation in both aspects. What worries Europe most is the separation of Ukraine and Crimea changing hands. And the most heart-breaking thing is that it cannot do anything looking at the flames of war in Ukraine.
Facing the Ukraine Crisis, Europe evidently lacks strength in confronting Russia. Therefore, the United States has put "Pivot to Europe" on its agenda. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) intensified its military arrangements while the United States carried out fortified sanction measures, upgrading the confrontation between the West and Moscow. The press is crying out in alarm: Europe is falling into a new cold war. Europe, standing between the United States and Russia, is in a dilemma. Although it is against what Russia does, it hopes that Russia can participate in the political settlement of the Ukraine Crisis. Europe's appeal for safety is to put out the flames of war in Ukraine instead of being an enemy of Russia. But what the United States is doing has undoubtedly pitted Europe against Russia. On the issue of sanctions, Europe has to take its own economic benefits and safety into consideration. Besides, the "new Europe," standing beside the United States, is putting pressure on the "old Europe." The EU is really at a dilemma about whether to continue or retreat.
The above four points reflect the harsh reality in Europe: The traditional security structure is broken. Like the Cold War era, Europe is once again on the front line where the West is in an overall confrontation with Russia. This runs against Europe's security design after the end of the Cold War. Europe worries whether the U.S. "Pivot to Europe" can provide a reliable guarantee of security while its own defense structure is still an armchair strategy without even a common diplomatic safety policy. In addition, it has to suffer further from the weakening and unpredictable economic recovery. Therefore, the influence of Europe in international affairs will inevitably be restrained and weakened in the future.
The writer is a researcher at the World Research Center.
