CPEC TO MAKE PAKISTAN A REGIONAL MANUFACTURING HUB: PM

Arsalan said:

NAAAAA KRRRRR

you agreeing with something!!!

Calls for celebrations but i wont tag ANYONE as it will ruin this moment!
Ok, you know what, i have taken a screen shot bro!! Seriously i have You know i will be open and straight forward with such things, so i will say it out loud. I always though you just cannot agree with anything and when you are convinced or you have no further thing to argue with you just choose to skip that thread. No offense!

Click to expand...

I celebrated anyways.

chanakya84 said:

Agreed to most of the part but let me ask you few more questions.

If the demand is high then possibly then it will draw attention from foreign companies to set up asembly or even manufacturing plants.
I dont understand how will foreign companies be attracted if you have a road. Let me put it this way, CPEC involves developing a port and the route to it. So now once the infra is done the population is not going to be efficient in manufacturing but it will still continue to be labor.

At the same time China is going to keep its factories in China itself. They are not going to expand them to Pakistan for obivious reasons to keep the cost factor intact.

I have been hearing reading about the claims being made but still fail to understand how making a port city will have such a huge impact on local population when the items which will be exported will neither be manufactured in Pakistan. Pakistan will just provide logistics. People are behaving as if it will turn Pakistan into a developed country.

No one is even talking about the following. China loaned 10 rs to pakistan for creating infrastructure, pakistan gave that 10 rs back to chinese engineers to create the same infrastructure, now pakistan will pay back 10 rs + 2 rs loan back to china for transferring the goods which will manufacture in china, will sell in pakistan and will destroy local industry (i would like to put how Indian local ecomm has been destroyed by giants like amazon, they reduced their price and sustained them till every other player went bankrupt, but then they sell indian products a lot). So it is a win win situation for China.

What i believe is it is more of a media campaign to make the people of pakistan to be in favor for it. Everyone is claiming everything but no one talks about the actual details. Over a period of time it has become a norm to associate CPEC with development.

Correct me if i am wrong in my assesment

Click to expand...

Obviously you can't or don't want to look past the logistics. For logistics you need more than roads. For example you need trucks and considering the lenght of CPEC it will create huge demand for that. If a lot of trucks are being purchased then of course that will attract attention from foreign companies.

China is focusing on high-tech manufacturing and labor costs are rising. It isn't a far fetched idea that some low-cost chinese manufacturers, given the right incentives and support from both goverments and strategic location of Gwadar, set up factories there. Just a fraction of China's low-cost manufacturing would bring billions of dollar for Pakistan.

CPEC has the potential to create millions of jobs not just in Gwadar or Balochistan but all over Pakistan, from Gilgit to Gwadar. Right now Pakistan's economy is growing at around 4-4,5%. With more empolyment, economic activity and no energy crisis (hopefully) if Pakistan then can achieve a growth rate of 6-7% and keep it for 1-2 decades then Pakistan will be in good position to be a middle income country. From there on it should be smooth sailing for Pakistan.

What you believe in is what you want it to be. Once the chinese commit to something then they make sure to fulfill it and CPEC is an important part of OBOR. Now it is up to Pakistan to take this opportunity towards economic growth and regional connectivity. It would be foolish to not take it. We have little to loose and a lot to gain.

Arbiter said:

Obviously you can't or don't want to look past the logistics. For logistics you need more than roads. For example you need trucks and considering the lenght of CPEC it will create huge demand for that. If a lot of trucks are being sold then of course that will attract attention from foreign companies.

China is focusing on high-tech manufacturing and labor costs are rising. It isn't a far fetched idea that some low-cost chinese manufacturers, given the right incentives and support from both goverments and strategic location of Gwadar, set up factories there. Just a fraction of China's low-cost manufacturing would bring billions of dollar for Pakistan.

CPEC has the potential to create millions of jobs not just in Gwadar or Balochistan but all over Pakistan, from Gilgit to Gwadar. Right now Pakistan's economy is growing at around 4-4,5%. With more empolyment, economic activity and no energy crisis (hopefully) if Pakistan then can achieve a growth rate of 6-7% and keep it for 1-2 decades then Pakistan will be in good position to be a middle income country. From there on it should be smooth sailing for Pakistan.

What you believe in is what you want it to be. Once the chinese commit to something then they make sure to fulfill it and CPEC is an important part of OBOR. Now it is up to Pakistan to take this opportunity towards economic growth and regional connectivity. It would be foolish to not take it. We have little to loose and a lot to gain.

Click to expand...

Dude you are still not getting my point...

I am not saying it wont create jobs but what i am saying is it is being hyped way more than what it will deliver. What my perception about Gwadar is chinese have ensured to feed the political class enough money to propagate it as a game changer so that it does not get any opposition from the local domestic market.

Reason being Pakistan will just be the facilitator. Once the infra is ready you will just need maintainance guys. Trucks are not going to originate from Pakistan they will originate from China. You could have made a lot of money simply by taxation. But then your government has already exempt China from taxes.

Regarding Pakistan industry, I think Pakistan already has access to all the major cities viz a viz the location so gwadar wont be doing much for Pakistan in terms of export which they cannot do right now. But then once the competing Chinese goods hit the market it will further derail the exxisting trade in pakistani market.

As the labor costs rise China will never set up industries in Pakistan. For the reason first it will then be putting all eggs in a single basket. Second because of the HDI. Pakistan lags seriously behind in terms of HDI. Once the HDI improves in Pakistan not just China, any country would love to invest. But quality international standard education is still tough in Pakistan.

Let me give you an example how HDI works, India was once the land of snake charmers, then came the image for call centers, then it was tech support, then it was menial software jobs, then it was cheap IT labor, now the latest trend is R & D. It is all because of HDI, where india is focussing a lot. It is no longer about education it is more about industry ready education. For this reason India provides the world with engg with pay packages worth in crores as freshers as well as engg whose packages are mearly 60,000 bucks annual as freshers. Pakistan still has to match it up on this front.

Spectre said:

Realistically it would be the goods where China has lost it's competitive advantage due to higher labor and other input costs as it moves towards mid-tech goods/services and environment friendly practices.

Click to expand...

I hate to say this--but you are probably correct. But I also think CPEC breaks up stagnation in Pakistan when it comes to economic activity. So, yes, if any 'manufacturing' going to come to Pakistan from China then that may be because Chinese labor and standards are getting better/costly.

Breaking up stagnation. Being able to add some to the GDP. Inviting investment. Infrastructure/Energy improvements. Fresh business ideas and influx of more people into Pakistan. And the strategic dimension of CPEC for Pak-China. All these are better than growing too slowly or being internationally ignored.

So long as CPEC doesn't destroy the environment in Pakistan it can't be a long term bad thing for Pakistan.

TheNoob said:

Those idiots think that CPEC has nothing for Pakistan.
They're wrong.

Infastructure is the main big thing.
Which will get us on the track.
We cant afford a huge infastructure project.
CPEC is the only way to go.

Once it is done.
The transport revenue alongside port income will bring wealth security to the country, and especially to balochistan as it has been neglected on the social level, at all times.

We must change that.
jobs will come, investors will start planning and things will finally be on the right track.


Dont be narrowminded guys.
Things are yet to happen.

Click to expand...

You talk like a true politician LOL

you said nothing decisive on how Pak economy will grow and why it will grow other than saying Pak is great.

Wet Shirt Contest said:

you know, things they dont want to manufacture so they will dump it to pakistan. meanwhile rest of industries (or whats left of it) wouldn't stand a chance against Chinese manufacturing giants.

Click to expand...

Well no one can compete with China, not even USA. Thats why Trump wants to put a 45% tariff on Chinese imports.

While Pakistan is giving China no tariff.

Spectre said:

Dreams and Promises. Sorry folks - too hard to resist..

Realistically it would be the goods where China has lost it's competitive advantage due to higher labor and other input costs as it moves towards mid-tech goods/services and environment friendly practices.

So my guess would be water intensive, labor intensive, higher pollution causing manufacturing

- Chemicals
- Textile
- Furniture
- Plastics
- Glass
- Steel Mills (shifting outdated or surplus capacities from China to Pak)

Click to expand...

sir maybe you forget the 60s or even the early 80s, when India was about to into famine. whereas pakistan was doing quite well. things change. plus i dont understand why do indians get so butt hurt when cpec is mentioned. it doesn't concern you. i mean, i do appreciate everyones opinion in this forum because it is definetly a positive thing. but in every forum you see indians saying the same mantram, which is that cpec will destroy pakistan, pakistan is making a big mistake. blah blah blah. please do your self a favor and realise that face that cpec is hapenning whether you like it or not. chahnbar port is a great thing for india, no doubt. but please dont pretend to be concerned for pakistan

Mo12 said:

You talk like a true politician LOL

you said nothing decisive on how Pak economy will grow and why it will grow other than saying Pak is great.


Well no one can compete with China, not even USA. Thats why Trump wants to put a 45% tariff on Chinese imports.

While Pakistan is giving China no tariff.

Click to expand...

exactly, inko kaun samjayie , chinese are only working for their national interest and hardly anyone in pakistan understands this.

Syed.Ali.Haider said:

Imagine that!

If and when CEPC moves from a hypothetical to reality, we shall see what happens.














(And on that high note, it is an excellent time we part ways, given that the gulf is now simply too deep to ever bridge or indeed even fathom. Auf Wiedersehen!)

Click to expand...

I leave that to you dear!
I am always ready to build those bridges as long as someone is ready to meet me half way. Also i do not see disagreement and argument as a gulf anyway.

You take care.

World is changing and Pak is progressing with high pace that really disturbs a neighbor of Pak.

Pakistanisfirst said:

World is changing and Pak is progressing with high pace that really disturbs a neighbor of Pak.

Click to expand...

hope India catches up

Can't speculate on others, but I see a golden opportunity for the Turkish companies as they see another Turkish like economy in the making in Pak. Already, one of the most business savvy manufacturers in Turkey, Arcelik, has got its foothold. Others definitely will follow...

Syed.Ali.Haider said:

So what will Pakistan manufacture due to CPEC?

Click to expand...

This is a loaded question and the answer would be like writing a book as the impact is far beyond manufacturing.But here:

1) China has a population issue in their manufacturing towns, older labor and non-English speaking. They plan on sharing that business with Pakistan where they can assemble Cell Phones, TV's Home Electronics, Home Goods in Pakistan (stuff that says "Made in China" and that's everything), to ship to the ME, Africa and Central Russian states. Gawader is very close to all these places, so shipping along makes it much cheaper, vs. shipping from the other side of China (much longer distance to the port and through ships).

2) For this, there will be over 2 dozen trade free zones built across the CPEC. These new zones will have their own new Residential Cities, with thousands of new Homes (new jobs for construction), Hospitals (new jobs for medical staff, Schools, Colleges, Universities (new jobs for teachers, etc), local Restaurants, Hotels, Bakeries, Coffee Shops (businesses and new jobs), Roads, Parks, Rail Stations, Airports (new jobs), Shopping Malls (people buying food, cars, trucks, clothes, toys and majority of them made in Pakistan at that point due to local manufacturing), Water Dams, Power Plants, etc. Take a look at California's market, what IT has done there in 2 decades!! Take a look at Texas from Austin to the end of North Texas before Oklahoma, what bringing in new business offices has done there, three of the top 10 cities to move to, are neighboring cities outside of Dallas with the highest growth. Same goes for Virginia, Kansas, St. Louis, and other places. It will be the same for Pakistan too.

3) For electronics related industry (Haeir and Huwaei already started initial production in Pakistan), Pakistan engineers will be employed. And soon after having some experience, Pakistan will offer manufacturing capability to Samsung, LG, etc, as well (same model like China). You have the assembly line and technology, offer it to others for cheaper produce manufacturing and assembly. Audi wants to assemble cars in Pakistan, so does VW and Volvo and Renault (you and I had debated that too). So that would grow the auto sector too.

4) BPO/IT offshore: once you start having an electronics related manufacturing capability, your IT talent will be used a lot to provide Software integration capability as from the TV to a Laptop to a Car, all use software. Naturally, you'll start to offer IT / BPO offshore services like India and due to being much cheaper, you'll get plenty of business.

5) Having the above capability and associated expansion in jobs, and taxation and have labor trained on electronics, software, manufacturing, you'd also enhance, re-design and create defensive technologies and advance towards the military front also.

6) Every year post 2018, you'd have many public companies being created through IPO's, which then bring in more and more investments into your stock market and provide more $$$$ to investors, resulting in growth in the economic sector.

So however you look at it, Pakistan is going up and rapidly, almost at an unimaginable speed, and there is no stopping to it. This is a true definition of extremely rapid transformation of an entire country

The current government has truly re-created a new Pakistan. From a "terrorist supporting country and a failed state in 2013" to "one of the Fastest Growing Economies in 2016"!!