Daily Research Report Karachi Stock Exchange

Mughal Steel IPO on Monday. Expected strike price in book building is PKR 34. Subscribe with a target of PKR 50 (profit of 16 Rupees) in one-two months.

SBD-3 said:

On a side note how many of the people here invest in forex,stocks and commodities?

My holdings
Allied Bank
United Bank
Pak Electron(newly created)
Masood Textiles (New)
Saif Power
Avanceon
Stocks on my active watchlist for future entry
Hino Pak Motors
Honda Cars
Hascol
Engro Powergen
National Bank
Punjab Oil Mills


Hum Network
Golden Arrow Selected Stocks Fund

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Current Portfolio
Saif Power
Avanceon
Synthetic Products Enterprise
National Bank of Pakistan
United Bank Limited
Faysal Bank
NIB Bank
Allied Bank Limited
Cresent Steel
Pak Electron
HiNoon Pharma
HUM Network

Watchlist
Nishat Mills
Masood Textile
Ghandara Nissan
Hascol Petrolium
Shell Pakistan
Pak Oilfields
Pak Petrolium
Fecto Cement.

NML and NCL: 1HFY15 Result Previews



Nishat Mills limited (NML) and Nishat Chunian Limited (NCL) are scheduled to announce their 2QFY15 results tomorrow. We expect NML to post net earnings of PkR1.28bn (EPS: PkR3.64) in 2QFY15 vs. NPAT of PkR2.28bn (EPS: PkR6.49) in 2QFY14, down by 44%YoY. Due to subdued top-line (down by 5.1%YoY) on low demand and costs pressures expected to be on the higher side, we anticipate GMs to come off by 520bps to 13.6% in 2QFY15. However, support to the bottom-line is expected to come from "other income" (up by 1.7%YoY), as associate companies continue to maintain a strong dividend payout. Subsequently, 1HFY15 earnings for NML are expected to clock in at PkR1.68bn (EPS: PkR4.77), down by 56%YoY. We expect NCL to post a bottom-line of PkR0.40bn (EPS: PkR1.98) in 2QFY15 vs. NPAT of PkR1.04bn (EPS: PkR5.21) in 2QFY14, down by 62%YoY. Downturn in international demand is expected to keep top-line under pressure, where we anticipate a meager sales growth of 1%YoY in 2QFY15. This along with 2%YoY growth in costs is expected to shrink GMs by 130bps to 7.9% in 2QFY15. Weaker core operations are expected to be veiled by dividends from the subsidiary company on both YoY and QoQ basis. This will take NCL’s 1HFY15 earnings down by a massive 87%YoY to PkR0.16bn (EPS: PkR0.79). On the back of absence of positives in the textile policy, accompanied with lower international demand and weakness in cotton prices, the textile sector has underperformed the broader market by 1.4% CYTD. We continue our preference for NML (TP of PkR172.1/sh) over NCL supported by its larger proportion of value added goods in its sales mix and a well-diversified portfolio.



NML - Other income to aid ailing core operations: We expect NML to post net earnings of PkR1.28bn (EPS: PkR3.64) in 2QFY15 vs. NPAT of PkR2.28bn (EPS: PkR6.49) in 2QFY14, drastically down by 44%YoY. While top-line of the company is expected to remain subdued on account of tepid demand, higher inventory buildups might keep costs pressures on the higher side (up by 1.1%YoY). Consequently, we anticipate GMs to come off by 520bps to 13.6% in 2QFY15 vs. 18.8% in 2QF14. However, support to the bottom-line is expected to come from "other income" (up by 1.7%YoY), as associate companies continue to maintain a strong dividend payout. On a QoQ basis, earnings are expected to recover by 220%, primarily driven by the recognition of the dividends and a slight improvement on the core operational front. Subsequently, 1HFY15 earnings are expected to clock in at PkR1.68bn (EPS: PkR4.77) vs. NPAT of PkR3.85bn (EPS: PkR10.96) in 1HFY14, down by 56%YoY. While 1HFY15 is expected to be disappointing, we believe 2HFY15 should be better particularly on account of purchasing inventory at lower rates.



NCL - Core operation might continue to falter! We expect NCL to post a NPAT of PkR0.40bn (EPS: PkR1.98) in 2QFY15 vs. NPAT of PkR1.04bn (EPS: PkR5.21) in 2QFY14, massively down by 62%YoY. Downturn in international demand primarily led by China is expected to continue exerting pressure on the spinner's top-line, where we anticipate a meager sales growth of 1%YoY in 2QFY15 to PkR5.48bn. This along with 2%YoY growth in costs is expected to shrink GMs by 130bps to 7.9% in 2QFY15 from 9.2% in 2QFY14. While core operations are expected to remain weak, dividends from the subsidiary Nishat Chunian Power (NCPL) are expected to provide some respite to the bottom-line, both on YoY and QoQ basis. In this regard, non-core EPS of the company is anticipated to clock in at PkR2.96/share. This will take 1HFY15 earnings down by a massive 87%YoY to PkR0.16bn (EPS: PkR0.79) vs. earnings of PkR1.27bn (EPS: PkR6.33) in 1HFY14.

SECP wake up and save KSE

Thinkingsoldier said:

SECP wake up and save KSE

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SECP ka he to Sara phadda hay. Brokers are on an unannounced strike by destroying the market.

Investors are loosing whole investment

M holding my positions PAEL rate 60 and pibtl 36. Dont know what is next

Any professional here?

Backed by 11.7%WoW increase in oil prices , Oil & Gas sector remained in the limelight as it appreciated by 5.9%WoW. Resultantly, the KSE100 index gained 2.73%WoW to conclude the week at 33,235pts. Key highlights of the week included: 1) the ongoing result season where POL result beat market expectations, 2) the CCOP approved bids worth US$1.02bn with regards to divestment of 609mn shares in HBL, and 3) remittances for 9MFY15 clocked an increase of 15%YoY to US$13.3bn. Gainers at the bourse were 1) DAWH (+11.6%WoW), 2) PPL (+9.3%WoW), 3) MLCF (+7.7%WoW) and 4) POL (+7.5%WoW) while laggards for the week included 1) PTC (-9.8%WoW, on back of disappointing 1QCY15 results), 2) EPCL (-2.8%WoW), 3) SNGP (-2.3%WoW) and 4) MEBL (-1.8%WoW). Volumes jumped by 23.14%WoW reflecting renewed investor confidence taking average daily turnover from 240.4mn shares in the past week to 296.0mn shares during this week. Foreigners during the week bought net equities worth US$7.50mn taking MTD net buyers of US$4.60mn.

Saudi Arabia will open its $532 billion stock market to direct foreign investment on June 15, allowing qualified foreign institutions to buy shares, the Capital Market Authority (CMA) said.
Final rules covering the opening of the market will be published on May 4, the CMA added.
The authority announced last July that it would permit direct foreign purchases of shares in the first half of 2015. Fund managers believe tens of billions of dollars will eventually enter the country as a result.
In draft rules released last August before a period of public consultation, the CMA proposed a 10 percent cap on foreign ownership of the market’s value.
Among other draft rules, a single foreign investor could own no more than 5 percent of any listed firm, while all foreign institutions combined could own no more than 20 percent.
Till now, foreign investors have been restricted to buying Saudi shares indirectly through swaps or exchange-traded funds.

Originally NEWS Published in Arab News

the highest ever quarterly profits

Volumetric progression on account of effective competitive pricing and supply chain efficiency are expected to be the hallmark of EFOODS 1QCY15F financial results, scheduled to be announced on Apr 20'15. In this regard, we expect the company to record NPAT of PkR706mn (EPS: PkR0.92) in 1QCY15F versus NPAT of PkR190mn (EPS: PkR0.25) posted in 1QCY14, anticipated to mark the highest ever quarterly profits for the company. Sales are expected to continue the growth momentum, increasing by 31%YoY to PkR13.3bn, primarily on the back of volumetric uptick as Olpers and Tarang continue to be offered at a discount to competition. GMs of the company are expected to tread 219/293bps YoY/QoQ higher to stand at 22.5% in the quarter on account of 1) seasonal weakness in milk procurement prices and 2) dip in FO prices where fuel and energy is ~4% of total cost. Further support to bottom-line is likely to come from lower distribution costs as the company effectively managed its supply chain issues. On a sequential basis, we anticipate NPAT to jump up by 16%QoQ in 1QCY15F, led by 8%QoQ growth in sales and uptick in GMs. The stock has gained 29% in the last twelve trading sessions on expectations of a solid 1QCY15F earnings performance as the company looks all set to resume its growth phase after disappointing financial performance in the last two years. While CY15F P/E of 51x appears demanding, a projected 50%+ NPAT CAGR over the medium term underpins our positive stance. That said, currently we are in the process of reviewing our investment case for EFOODS and will update investors shortly. .





EFERT: 1QCY15 result to include concessionary gas billing

EFERT is scheduled to announce its 1QCY15 financial results on Friday Apr 24'15, where we expect the company to post NPAT of PKR2.61bn (EPS: PkR1.96) which compares favorably when pitted against NPAT of PkR1.43bn (EPS: PkR1.09) posted in 1QCY14; up by a robust 79%YoY. This boost in earning is expected on the back of: 1) resumption of concessionary gas supply at the tail end of 1QCY15, 2) 6.5% YoY increase in the company’s volumetric sales, 3) 5.3% YoY increase in urea price, and 4) 21% reduction in finance cost. The company’s gross margins are expected to jump by 508bps YoY on back of concessionary gas being billed to EFERT in the last 20-25 days of Mar'15 to further improve bottomline. Finance cost is likely to go down by 20.5%YoY on back of ~150bps decline in the policy rate in 1QCY15 as compared to the same period last year and company’s swift debt repayments. On a sequential basis, we anticipate NPAT to taper off by 4.4% in 1QCY15F, led by seasonal down tick in volumetric sales. The scrip has dropped 9.3% from its CYTD high to currently trade at CY15F P/E of 6.3x, a 52% discount from our fertilizer sector universe CY15F P/E of 9.6x. .

Any advice on how to invest in the Golden Arrow fund outside Pakistan?

Good thread @Thinkingsoldier keep it up. These research reports are really helpful.

I don't know how to give you positive rating for your this good work @Thinkingsoldier

the maria said:

Good thread @Thinkingsoldier keep it up. These research reports are really helpful.

I don't know how to give you positive rating for your this good work @Thinkingsoldier

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Whose pic is in your Avatar?