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rmi5 said:

Bro, their case is not like that. if one party decides to get close to Azerbaijan for gas export(which is now basically named Russian gas export to europe, the most important power projection tool of Russia), it means they would lose Russian support and they will be toppled unless, one party actively engages Azerbaijan in their internal affairs, and Azerbaijan fully supports one party, which again I doubt Azerbaijan do that, since they want to keep Russia satisfied in some degree for the sake of Karabagh and some people who had connection/money in Russia.

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Theres only one way to escape this, get your weapons from west, there is a reason why Azerbaijan is increasingly importing from Turkey and Israel but west is just too stupid with their useless embargos against Azerbaijan. They could sell their weapons and gain a partner which is the door to Central Asia and Caspian sea, not to meantion a alternative gas source to Russia.

xenon54 said:

Theres only one way to escape this, get your weapons from west, there is a reason why Azerbaijan is increasingly importing from Turkey and Israel but west is just too stupid with their useless embargos against Azerbaijan. They could sell their weapons and gain a partner which is the door to Central Asia and Caspian sea, not to meantion a alternative gas source to Russia.

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Armenia has the christian card against Azerbaijan. That's why west will never truly support us. Azeri elite know it very well. Arms embargo is another anti-Azeri act, since Armenians are already dirt poor and cannot buy arms, so the embargo is basically just on Azerbaijan. Although we are selling our energy and providing immense leverage for them over Russia, and Iran, yet they talk about some non-sense human rights violations in Azerbaijan. I very well know that they don't give 2 fucks about any human rights, unless they want to put pressure on some country. President of Azerbaijan treats them too modestly. Although, I don't have any objection since he somehow has successfully kept them shut up.
Israel is a different story. They are the smartest players of the politics and are not barking dogs, unlike 95%+ of countries. hopefully, we are natural allies, because of huge common interests, like Iran, their energy needs, our technological and military needs, ...
Azerbaijan needs to get close to West, but we need to consider Russia as well. Karabagh issue solves when we achieve green light, or neutrality position from Russia and west to attack Armenia. No peace process will give Karabagh back, since always Iran, Russia, ... and other Armenians allies will pump enough money to make Armenians reluctant to a real peace.

rmi5 said:

Azerbaijan needs to get close to West, but we need to consider Russia as well. Karabagh issue solves when we achieve green light, or neutrality position from Russia and west to attack Armenia.

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Im not very optimistic about this mate.

xenon54 said:

Im not very optimistic about this mate.

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Well, the one whose green light matters, is Russia. We know Russians very well. They are negotiable people, and won't give a damn about Armenia if we offer them something that they cannot refuse Russian companies have control even on the Iravan sewage let alone communications, electricity distribution, ... . We need to show Russian that cooperation with us, is better for them than cooperation with Armenia, and continuing their current policy, would cause them to lose Azerbaijan completely.

rmi5 said:

Well, the one whose green light matters, is Russia. We know Russians very well. They are negotiable people, and won't give a damn about Armenia if we offer them something that they cannot refuse Russian companies have control even on the Iravan sewage let alone communications, electricity distribution, ... . We need to show Russian that cooperation with us, is better for them than cooperation with Armenia, and continuing their current policy, would cause them to lose Azerbaijan completely.

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Well lets hope... but we also didnt wait for green light from West/NATO when Greeks were slaughtering Turks in Cyprus, i know Russians arent so easy to deal with like Westerners but there is the danger that the more Armenia keeps you land the more the world accepts it.

xenon54 said:

Well lets hope... but we also didnt wait for green light from West/NATO when Greeks were slaughtering Turks in Cyprus, i know Russians arent so easy to deal with like Westerners but there is the danger that the more Armenia keep you land the more the world accepts it.

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Well, your case was different. You bordered USSR, and guarded europe from USSR. You were 100% their allies as well. The worst thing they could do, was somehow punishing you for a limited time by limited targeted sanctions, which they did so. They could not do more. I am 100.00% sure their reaction would have been much different if it was happening after soviet collapse, and before your current economic boom. About not letting prolonging the occupation of Karabagh, I fully agree with you.

rmi5 said:

Well, your case was different. You bordered USSR, and guarded europe from USSR. You were 100% their allies as well. The worst thing they could do, was somehow punishing you for a limited time by limited targeted sanctions, which they did so. They could not do more.

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Sanctions was already active before we invaded Cyprus, we got sanctioned because the government had refused to ban drug plantations.

Nefer said:

Sanctions was already active before we invaded Cyprus, we got sanctioned because the government had refused to ban drug plantations.

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Nefer said:

Sanctions was already active before we invaded Cyprus, we got sanctioned because the government had refused to ban drug plantations.

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You are not right, bro.

xenon54 said:

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rmi5 said:

You are not right, bro.

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Didn't you watch the Kıbrıs Barış Harekatı Documentary ?

Kıbrıs Barış Harekatı BELGESELİ - YouTube

rmi5 said:

Well, the one whose green light matters, is Russia. We know Russians very well. They are negotiable people, and won't give a damn about Armenia if we offer them something that they cannot refuse Russian companies have control even on the Iravan sewage let alone communications, electricity distribution, ... . We need to show Russian that cooperation with us, is better for them than cooperation with Armenia, and continuing their current policy, would cause them to lose Azerbaijan completely.

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Although I wish Russia to agree with Azerbaijan on Karabakh. I think in this instance it won't happen. As you said; Azerbaijan can function as alternative to Russian gas and oil. Russia's survival, without exaggerations, depends on gas and oil revenue. If they empower Azerbaijan, that would give Europe and Turkey an alternative to Russian energy. IMHO they will never let this happen.

Russia already is afraid Europeans want to disintegrate their federation similar how they disintegrated Soviet Union. If they destroy Russian economy not buying from Russia and buying from Azerbaijan, Russian economy would face disaster. I'm not saying this but also so geopolitical analyst. At the end the future of Karabakh and more broadly the Caucasus will be decides by war.

Russia is expanding their sphere of influence. Putin said Ukraine is just the beginning. it is only matter of time Putin will reinsert their influence in Karabakh. They already have their base there in Armenia. It would be foolish to think that Russia would reinsert their influence in Ukraine but give up their influence in the Caucasus. What could Azerbaijan offer to Russia? Caucasus is much more important than Ukraine for the reasons I mentioned earlier.

Anyway, I don't think Russia will do these things immediately but at the end it will happen. Probably in the next 5-10 years.

Nefer said:

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Welkom op het forum broeder Welke stad of dorp woon je?

rmi5 said:

Well, the one whose green light matters, is Russia. We know Russians very well. They are negotiable people, and won't give a damn about Armenia if we offer them something that they cannot refuse Russian companies have control even on the Iravan sewage let alone communications, electricity distribution, ... . We need to show Russian that cooperation with us, is better for them than cooperation with Armenia, and continuing their current policy, would cause them to lose Azerbaijan completely.

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i think you have a good point. If you want to win over Russia, you are going to have to convince them that it is more profitable to co-op with Turkics, of which there are many in Russia too, than to counter it. One thing is for sure, the world is changing, so i wonder for how long they will be able to have their own way in CA, let alone i wonder what will become of Russia once their income from natural resources run out. If they dont play it smart, like back in the Soviet times, they might end up financially weak again while Turkic world, especially hopefully fueled by a more pro-Turkic Turkey in the future, is developing. I think if the Turkic countries dont give in too much to Russia and dont mess up, we will have a good chance in the future to come closer step by step. Depending on the good will of Russia or any power is not going to bring us anywhere. Even though i dislike Russia, if Turkey can get even closer with Russia through trade, mutual interest in CA and resisting excessive Chinese influence, which Russia is most probably not going to tolerate either, i think this way Russia might change its mind. Anyway, no matter what, even if its a very long road, we must first build up credible economies, then military, then political power will come which will provide us a bigger voice.

A very good analysis

atatwolf said:

Although I wish Russia to agree with Azerbaijan on Karabakh. I think in this instance it won't happen. As you said; Azerbaijan can function as alternative to Russian gas and oil. Russia's survival, without exaggerations, depends on gas and oil revenue. If they empower Azerbaijan, that would give Europe and Turkey an alternative to Russian energy. IMHO they will never let this happen.

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That's exactly the reason why Russians support Armenia. It's mostly because of putting pressure on us, to avoid us expand such projects, tons of similar reasons. Iran also solely support Armenia, because it is crystal clear for them that strengthening Azerbaijan, means separation of South Azerbaijan, and in contrast to Kurdistan or .... if shit hits the fan in south Azerbaijan, Iran cannot do much to avoid her to separate. Also, Separation of South Azerbaijan for Iran means losing 25% of the population who run most businesses, have most engineers, most elites, ... of Iran. Literally means like a person loses his head.

Russia already is afraid Europeans want to disintegrate their federation similar how they disintegrated Soviet Union. If they destroy Russian economy not buying from Russia and buying from Azerbaijan, Russian economy would face disaster. I'm not saying this but also so geopolitical analyst. At the end the future of Karabakh and more broadly the Caucasus will be decides by war.

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That's the reason they want to annoy us by playing Karabagh card, not make us fully hostile, but have leverage over us. since, by making us fully hostile, then we would go for building required pipelines as big as possible, and as soon as possible, to collect all gas even from neighboring Central Asia, and also making us help Chechens and ... which their region is literally need a small activation energy to be exploded and revolted again.

Russia is expanding their sphere of influence. Putin said Ukraine is just the beginning. it is only matter of time Putin will reinsert their influence in Karabakh. They already have their base there in Armenia. It would be foolish to think that Russia would reinsert their influence in Ukraine but give up their influence in the Caucasus. What could Azerbaijan offer to Russia? Caucasus is much more important than Ukraine for the reasons I mentioned earlier.

Anyway, I don't think Russia will do these things immediately but at the end it will happen. Probably in the next 5-10 years.

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Finally, they are playing a losing game, and they know it. They would finally screw Armenia over. I am a bit more pessimistic, and think it would happen in the next 10-20 years.

atatwolf said:

Welkom op het forum broeder Welke stad of dorp woon je?

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The one with the biggest population, no not Rotterdam