Situation Desperate but not critical...

Situation Desperate but not critical.

19th April-2014.


Pakistan Military’s Modernization plans stymied.

The acquisition plans of the tri-services have been beset by delays to some of its major and critical war material programs. The situation is becoming desperate but not critical.

The reasons for reaching this state of affairs are three-fold.

1. The inability of the Govt. of Pakistan to provide resources & sovereign guarantees towards the purchase of these weapons systems. This is mainly due to the poor state of the economy over the last six years due to critical power shortages experienced by the industrial sector as well as the country. GDP growth over this period remained at ~3% p.a. and most critically the FX rate (PKR: US$) went from 66:1 to 100:1.

2. Balance of Payments: Pakistan has to pay back to the IMF US$ 11 Billion by the end of 2015. It is not in a position to pay this huge amount from its own resources and therefore has to go back to the IMF to get another stand-by loan of US$ 6.6 Billion just to pay-off the previous loan.

3. Finally the USA & China, who are the major suppliers of war material to Pakistan, in the first instance, a seemingly obdurate US Congress is in no mood to approve arms sales either under FMS or EDA programs. Even though bi-lateral relations seem to be on the mend (for the umpteenth time), conditions placed by US Congressmen & Senators on the sales of arms cannot be met by Pakistan even under normal conditions – in the case of China, the other major arms provider, the inability of the Govt. of Pakistan to pay for past agreements & considerations have put on hold the signing of new weapons procurement agreements.

Some of the key weapons procurement plans which have encountered delays are as follows:

ARMY:
· Attack Helicopters: the Pakistan Army is in dire need to replace its ageing fleet of some 40 AH-1S/F Cobra helicopters. In recent months the army aviation has lost 3 such helicopters which crashed due to technical complications. The Cobras are vital in the army’s ongoing counterinsurgency operations against TTP militants in the FATA. Newer Super Cobra helicopters which the army covets are not forthcoming as a FMS allocation of US$ 500 million was withdrawn by the US.Govt in 2012 as it cancelled the PCIEF (Counterinsurgency Enhancement Fund). This fund would have allowed the sale of 12 AH-1Z Super Cobras in 2014-15. As an alternate the army evaluated the Turkish offer of the T-129 with 3 examples being donated for evaluation purposes. However, once again the issue of funds availability has put paid to any further progress towards this end.

· Medium Lift Helicopters: this is another area where the Pakistan Army is desperately looking towards the US to fulfill a glaring need for transport helicopters. As part of its wish list, Pakistan has time & again requested the US to release Blackhawk or the twin rotor Chinook medium-lift helicopters but the requests are falling on deaf ears. In recent years the army has had to scour the 2nd hand market to purchase Puma (UAE) and Mi-17’s (Eastern Europe) for spares and attrition losses.

· Self-Propelled Mortar System: another weapon system which can be utilized in the ongoing WoT against TTP militants is the 120mm SPM. The army’s two artillery divisions can augment this weapon system alongside its 155mm SPH to improve the lethality and effectiveness in support of the strike corps mechanized infantry units. The US is reluctant to approve a FMS package (worth US$1.5 billion) because it will raise eyebrows not only in the US Congress but also in New Delhi because it will enhance the army’s conventional capabilities. Hence Pakistan would need to look eastward at its vital partner China to fulfill this gap.

AIRFORCE:
· The PAF ACM Tahir Rafiq Butt has publicly stated that the Air force’s Modernization Plan 2025 has been suspended due to lack of resources. This is indeed a big blow to the PAF’s flagship project – the induction of the JF-17 Thunder Multi-Role Fighter.

· JF-17 Project is running at least 2-3 years behind schedule. A major milestone which was recently achieved was the induction of the 50th Block-1 JF-17 at PAC-Kamra. This completed the construction 42 JF-17’s under a US$ 700 million package. Under this package 3 Squadrons of the PAF were to re-equip with this type, but so far only 2 Squadrons 16 & 26 (20 a/c each) have been raised. There is much speculation on the raising of the 3rd Squadron but unfortunately the PAF has not been able to provide the ground infrastructure to operate this type at bases other than PAC-Kamra. The 9 surplus aircraft remain and operate under the Test & Evaluation Wing at PAC-Kamra.

PAF claims that the construction of JF-17 Block-11 has started but no fresh agreement has been signed between CATIC & PAC-Kamra. PAF has an eventual requirement for 150 JF-17’s to replace its ageing fleet of Mirage III/V, F-7P aircraft currently operating with 7 front-line squadrons.

· ZDK-03 AEW&C: this program is also running behind schedule as only 3 of the 4 ZDK-03 AEW&C have been delivered under a US$285 million package. The last two aircraft were to be upgraded with AESA radars with all four eventually operating with similar radar systems.

· J-10B / FC-20: the much ballyhooed purchase & induction of the heavier J-10B/FC-20 MMRCA (40 aircraft) is now a figment of our country’s imagination. The proposed US$ 1.5 Billion deal never materialized due to inability of the Chinese manufacturer CAC to fit the indigenously manufactured WS-10B turbofan based on the CFM56 core technology has met with serious reliability issues & the Russians have not allowed the license production and export of the AL-31FN engine.

NAVY:
· The navy is facing serious problems just to maintain its fleet of 44 major surface and sub-surface vessels. Its procurement plan has been hit hard by Pakistan’s economic woes.

· FFG: the Navy is desperate to replace its fleet of 6 Tariq Class (Amazon) British Type-21. Transferred by the UK during 1993/94, these ageing ships needed to be progressively replaced during 2010-2014 period. To this end Pakistan had requested the US for the release of eight surplus OHP class FFG in 2010. These were to remain in PN service until the 2020’s. So far only one OHP FFG (Alamgir) has been handed over in 2010-11. Most recently 3 additional surplus USN OHP Class FFG were put on hold by the US congress until Pakistan met certain conditions (related to the WoT) before the transfer could be effected. It is more than likely that this is not going to happen very soon as the conditions are next to impossible to fulfill.

· New FFG: the Navy would like to induct 4 new Frigates (FFG) into its surface fleet. The 3 serious options considered by the Navy were to buy 2 second-hand (but very young) Chinese Type 054 frigates (F-525/526) but the deal fell through because of financial difficulties. Buy up to 4 improved type F-22P (tentatively named F-23P) these may be an improved variant incorporating features of the Type 054A frigates. This time the Chinese balked as the Type 054A is the state of the art of the Chinese fleet. Buy 3 or 4 second-hand Chinese Type 053 H’s FFG but no progress seems to be forthcoming. It is more than likely that 4 additional F-22P’s would be ordered just to make up the surface fleet numbers.

· The only worthwhile fleet addition has been the 4 Zulfiquar or Sword Class under a US$700 million package. (Zulfiquar, Shamsheer, Saif, Aslat). 2500/3100 tons, 123 meters (Chinese F22P FFG design). Commissioned during 2009/2013. With 30 years of service expected and to be retired by 2040/2045.

· Azmat Class 500 ton FAC: 2 Chinese FAC ordered in 2010 to replace the 5 vintage FAC in service. Jalalat / Shujaat commissioned in 1997/99. Larkana commissioned in 1994 & the venerable Rajshahi, commissioned in 1966 now fully obsolete.

· 3 to 6 new Submarines SSK: Since the retirement of the Daphne Class SSK, the Pakistan Navy is looking to buy anywhere from 3 to 6 new submarines to also replace the ageing Agosta 70’s SSK. After considering many SSK designs (Hispano/French Scorpene, French Marlin SSK’s, and German Type 214…) the choices are once again restricted by political & financial difficulties, the Navy now talks about the possible purchase of up to 6 Chinese SSK’s. The Type chosen is as yet unknown. They speculate around the newer 3000+ ton “Qing Class” submarine (unlikely, because this Chinese SSK was at best a “test-bed") or the newer Type 041 Yuan SSK (without AIP) or the export version of the Type 041 known as the S-20. Pakistan would retrofit western sensors and AIP systems. The Chinese were eager to offer the sale of a handful of “second-hand” but still capable Type 039 Song Class Chinese SSK (with AIP). However the Navy resisted this most cost effective offer and now it seems that a deal could be signed for the S-20 SSK by the end of the year (2014) 2-3 years late.

However all is not lost……

Even under these difficult political, financial and economic conditions, the suspended supply chain continues to deliver war material to the armed forces.

The resumption of US military aid to Pakistan is seen as a sign of normalization of military-to-military ties between the US and Pakistan that had hit rock bottom after the killing of Osama bin Laden by US forces in Abbottabad in May 2011.

Sources said the notable developments over the past one year include delivery of 150 Harris additional radio sets, completed upgrades on 35 Pak F-16s at TAI and the US, and imminent delivery of 374 M113 armored personnel carriers as Excess Defense Articles in April 2014. The US$100 million upgrade of PAF fleet of 16 C-130B/E to H standard. The delivery of C-602 shore based ASM batteries. The possible delivery of 160 MRAPS to the Pakistan Army. Discussions are ongoing with the UK for the transfer of the Type-22 or 23 FFG to replace the Type-21 Amazon class FFG.

F17

Will Royal Navy going to transfer all of its Type-23 FFGs to PN and PN will only pay for the upgrade kits being supplied from EU:
Type 23 frigate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Current reactions of the government and military show that the threat of miscreants attacking on civil targets has been reduced to a great deal if not eliminated, thus the ease of relations of civil and military apparatus as the main purpose here is the protection of cities.
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I am of the opinion that the situation is not even desperate as our skies and ground are well protected and looked upon for at least few years to come (one has to remember that Indian army and Air force is also not in any prime condition).
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Now comes the Navy and here i am a bit confused because the IN certainly isn't doing marvels given the current set of events regarding it's subs but nonetheless it is a very strong apparatus especially it's air wing, but with the deployment if C602's, one can surely say that our shores are protected to a great extent while the addition of Chinese ships has given us some breathing space.
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Now comes the U.S.A..... *deep breathing*.....
Neglecting the circumstances Pakistan was put in by the U.S, they have proved themselves excellent allies and have provided us with gear we could only dream of having, not to mention the billions of dollars they've given us. As far as the conditions are concerned then i think they are justifiable and if sincere efforts are there, can be met in a year or two at most. Even if you disagree with me you have to take into the account the gear Pakistan would be getting from the U.S which will not only extend our abilities massively but also save some billions of dollars which can then be utilized for much needed R~D in both civil and defence sectors.
(NOTE-YOU MAY/MAY NOT AGREE)

FunkyGen said:

The situation is not even desperate now, current reactions of the government and military show that the threat of miscreants attacking on civil targets has been reduced to a great deal if not eliminated, thus the ease of relations of civil and military apparatus as the main purpose here is the protection of cities.
.
.
I am of the opinion that the situation is not even desperate as our skies and ground are well protected and looked upon for at least few years to come (one has to remember that Indian army and Air force is also not in any prime condition).
.
.
Now comes the Navy and here i am a bit confused because the IN certainly isn't doing marvels given the current set of events regarding it's subs but nonetheless it is a very strong apparatus especially it's air wing, but with the deployment if C602's i believe i can say that our shores are protected to a great extent while the addition of Chinese ships has given us some breathing space.
.
.
Now comes the U.S.A..... *deep breathing*.....
Neglecting the circumstances Pakistan was put in by the U.S, they have proved themselves excellent allies iand have provided us with gear we could only dream of having, not to mention the billions of dollars they've given us. As far as the conditions are concerned then i think they are justifiable and if sincere efforts are there, can be met in a year or two at most. Even if you disagree with me you have to take into the account the gear Pakistan would be getting from the U.S which will not only extend our abilities massively but also save some billions of dollars which can then be utilized for much needed R~D in both civil and defence sectors.
(NOTE-YOU MAY/MAY NOT AGREE)

Click to expand...

i hope u r right but everything you want pakistan to get has to be approved by our frenimes in the us congress

regarding USA pakistan has never had a very strong lobby post coldwar.
wee should look things in context of post coldwar now.
regarding AID, pakistan supplied USA with free transit. it would have been better we just asked for transit only and later EDA weapons rather than AID. the word has label us with poor benefits. we deployed so many troops in FATA and just got barely enough to cover that cost.

i think Pakistan should concentrate on JF-17, that is critical, rest may be put on hold for now.
the type 23 option from Britain might be a better option than for going for oliver Perry and then not being able to update it for some reasons.
another critical thing for navy second is subs from china PN may have to get them soon or later

fatman17 said:

i hope u r right but everything you want pakistan to get has to be approved by our frenimes in the us congress

Click to expand...

The approvals can be made easier by demonstrating a commonality of goals and interests. Instead a poke or two in the eyes does not go down well, for example keeping Dr. Afridi in jail. It creates unnecessary impressions that harm goodwill without any return to show for it.

And add to list, the stalled F-16s sale from Indonesia. Unfortunately, is such a lull continues, the present desperate state of affairs will turn critical in 5-10 years when Taliban resurge to higher-than-anticipated levels, Indians acquire Rafales and our relationship with frenemies turns more fragile with periodic shouts of rogue failed state publicity pouring all over in West and the East!

Dehli isn't far!

Battle Axe said:

And add to list, the stalled F-16s sale from Indonesia. Unfortunately, is such a lull continues, the present desperate state of affairs will turn critical in 5-10 years when Taliban resurge to higher-than-anticipated levels, Indians acquire Rafales and our relationship with frenemies turns more fragile with periodic shouts of rogue failed state publicity pouring all over in West and the East!

Dehli isn't far!

Click to expand...

All those problems can be easily dealt with - but only with a strong economy.

Guys, Pakistan is run by people who want to drive Pakistan into the ground. In their eyes the military is an obstacle to weaken and ultimately rid themselves of... Pakistan needs a system-wide a solution, a solid expulsion or elimination of corrupt entities in our midst. How can anyone expect anything to improve if the likes of Nawaz Sharif and Zardari come in and out, repeatedly? It's common sense guys, it's spring cleaning time.

VCheng said:

The approvals can be made easier by demonstrating a commonality of goals and interests. Instead a poke or two in the eyes does not go down well, for example keeping Dr. Afridi in jail. It creates unnecessary impressions that harm goodwill without any return to show for it.

Click to expand...

or keeping Dr. asifa in jail......it takes two to tango mate!

ziaulislam said:

regarding USA pakistan has never had a very strong lobby post coldwar.
wee should look things in context of post coldwar now.
regarding AID, pakistan supplied USA with free transit. it would have been better we just asked for transit only and later EDA weapons rather than AID. the word has label us with poor benefits. we deployed so many troops in FATA and just got barely enough to cover that cost.

i think Pakistan should concentrate on JF-17, that is critical, rest may be put on hold for now.
the type 23 option from Britain might be a better option than for going for oliver Perry and then not being able to update it for some reasons.
another critical thing for navy second is subs from china PN may have to get them soon or later

Click to expand...

depends on your defination of post-coldwar...the pakistan congress caucas during reagan and bush-1years was very strong.

fatman17 said:

or keeping Dr. asifa in jail......it takes two to tango mate!

Click to expand...

But she was handed over to USA by Pakistani agencies, and thus is an example of co-operation, so your example is exactly the opposite of the point that you wished to make.

(I assume you meant Dr. Aafia Siddiqui.)

fatman17 said:

or keeping Dr. asifa in jail......it takes two to tango mate!



depends on your defination of post-coldwar...the pakistan congress caucas during reagan and bush-1years was very strong.

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after the break up of soviet union i.e in 90s.
the importance of pakistan changed and india rose as an important country , Pakistan status also weakened in Muslim world with rapid accumulation of wealth in arab and some other Muslim countries

fatman17 said:

i hope u r right but everything you want pakistan to get has to be approved by our frenimes in the us congress

Click to expand...

@fatman17;
Please do be mindful of the fact that the "frenemies" were of your own (country's) choosing over a nearly six decade period. So there is (if one is honest enough) very little to crib about.

Another thought just crosses my mind; What is the 'tipping point' really? When 'desperate' turns into 'critical'? Did the policy-makers (both in and out of Uniform) pay any thought to that?

as long as we have people like zardari and ns.... this will continue... and the military should think for how long will it continue to rely on others assistance for equipment.

VCheng said:

All those problems can be easily dealt with - but only with a strong economy.

Click to expand...

Agreed. And that's something military can so nothing about.