Operation Rah-e-Nijat

[fatman17]

TTP confirms Mehsud dead, announces 15-day mourning

* Hakeemullah asks govt to prove Baitullah’s death
* US ‘pretty sure’ TTP chief dead

Staff Report

TANK: The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) confirmed on Monday that the group’s chief, Baitullah Mehsud, had been killed in a US drone strike on Wednesday, and announced a 15-day mourning period, reported a private TV channel.

Newly-appointed TTP spokesman Azam Tariq told the channel the TTP would observe a ceasefire during mourning period. He said a successor to Baitullah had not been chosen yet.

But a close aide of the TTP chief demanded that the government prove Baitullah was dead.

“I challenge (Interior Minister) Rehman Malik to prove that Baitullah is dead,” Hakeemullah, who was reportedly killed in a shootout on Friday, told journalists over the telephone. Hakeemullah said, “I am alive ... I am here to prove that I am alive and so is Baitullah,” he said. “Baitullah is alive and healthy ... he will come before the media soon. There is no succession,” he said.

However, Hakeemullah’s statement that Baitullah is healthy contradicts a statement by another Taliban leader, Maulana Noor Syed, who claimed the TTP chief “is seriously ill”.

Meanwhile, the US is “pretty sure” that Baitullah has been killed, White House Deputy Press Secretary Bill Burton said on Monday. He said the development “shows that Pakistan has made progress in moving to root out extremists”.

 

[Xeric]

Demand likely for offensive in SWA | Pakistan | News | Newspaper | Daily | English | Online

Demand likely for offensive in SWA

By: Shaiq Hussain | Published: August 15, 2009


ISLAMABAD - As Richard Holbrooke, Special US Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, arrives here today (Saturday) on a three-day visit to discuss the anti-terror strategy of US President Obama with Pakistani leadership, the diplomatic circles believe that he will ask for early commencement of military operation in South Waziristan.
The United States wants Pakistan to eliminate the al Qaeda hideouts in Waziristan and curb the Taliban militancy and for that it believes the killing of Baitullah Mehsud, Pakistani Taliban chief, has provided a great opportunity, as his followers are in disarray and the problem of militancy could be tackled successfully if ground offensive is launched.
Pakistani authorities, on the other hand, are not against launching a military operation in South Waziristan but before that they want to stabilise Swat, Dir and Buner where the Army flushed out Swati Taliban after months’ long offensive but still some of the areas are to be cleansed of the militants.
“The US envoy Holbrooke is expected to urge Pakistani leaders to go for an early ground offensive in Waziristan during his talks with President, Prime Minister and other officials in Islamabad,” said a diplomatic source desiring not to be named.
He said the Obama administration was also on board when it came to dialogue with the Taliban who were willing to shun militancy and distance themselves from al Qaeda. “However, the US authorities want Pakistan to eliminate the elements who are not ready to opt for the path of dialogue and dissociate themselves from the al Qaeda,” the source added.
An official here when contacted said that he was unaware of any fresh demand by Washington for the initiation of military offensive in South Waziristan.
Nonetheless, he admitted that the US authorities had been positive in their response to the desire expressed by Islamabad for talks with the moderate elements in the ranks of Taliban in the tribal areas. “Holbrooke will discuss what the US authorities think about the Pakistani idea of talking to moderate Taliban and how it could be worked upon for lasting peace in the region,” the official said.

 

[TaimiKhan]

Demand likely for offensive in SWA | Pakistan | News | Newspaper | Daily | English | Online

Demand likely for offensive in SWA

By: Shaiq Hussain | Published: August 15, 2009


ISLAMABAD - As Richard Holbrooke, Special US Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, arrives here today (Saturday) on a three-day visit to discuss the anti-terror strategy of US President Obama with Pakistani leadership, the diplomatic circles believe that he will ask for early commencement of military operation in South Waziristan.
The United States wants Pakistan to eliminate the al Qaeda hideouts in Waziristan and curb the Taliban militancy and for that it believes the killing of Baitullah Mehsud, Pakistani Taliban chief, has provided a great opportunity, as his followers are in disarray and the problem of militancy could be tackled successfully if ground offensive is launched.
Pakistani authorities, on the other hand, are not against launching a military operation in South Waziristan but before that they want to stabilise Swat, Dir and Buner where the Army flushed out Swati Taliban after months’ long offensive but still some of the areas are to be cleansed of the militants.
“The US envoy Holbrooke is expected to urge Pakistani leaders to go for an early ground offensive in Waziristan during his talks with President, Prime Minister and other officials in Islamabad,” said a diplomatic source desiring not to be named.
He said the Obama administration was also on board when it came to dialogue with the Taliban who were willing to shun militancy and distance themselves from al Qaeda. “However, the US authorities want Pakistan to eliminate the elements who are not ready to opt for the path of dialogue and dissociate themselves from the al Qaeda,” the source added.
An official here when contacted said that he was unaware of any fresh demand by Washington for the initiation of military offensive in South Waziristan.
Nonetheless, he admitted that the US authorities had been positive in their response to the desire expressed by Islamabad for talks with the moderate elements in the ranks of Taliban in the tribal areas. “Holbrooke will discuss what the US authorities think about the Pakistani idea of talking to moderate Taliban and how it could be worked upon for lasting peace in the region,” the official said.

In my opinion launching of an attack on SWA at this may not yield the results as analysts are hoping, the taliban may be in disarray due to BM death, but if we attack, the chances of them to unite will increase due to a simple fact, once they come under full attack their survival as a whole will be at stake and they will unite to defend themselves.
PA should let them fight out between each other and try to bring in more cracks & distance among the militants and convert as many groups as possible to the pro-govt side.
As rightly said, more attention to swat, buner & bajaur should be given also the darra adam khel area, bara area around peshawar also need attention, specially darra area as vital route lies in this area and can create problems for the govt in case a proper operation is launched.

 

[Xeric]

In my opinion launching of an attack on SWA at this may not yield the results as analysts are hoping, the taliban may be in disarray due to BM death, but if we attack, the chances of them to unite will increase due to a simple fact, once they come under full attack their survival as a whole will be at stake and they will unite to defend themselves.
PA should let them fight out between each other and try to bring in more cracks & distance among the militants and convert as many groups as possible to the pro-govt side.
As rightly said, more attention to swat, buner & bajaur should be given also the darra adam khel area, bara area around peshawar also need attention, specially darra area as vital route lies in this area and can create problems for the govt in case a proper operation is launched.

Agreed, but what about the elements of surprise, shock action, (counter) attacking before the enemy reorganize/consolidate?

 

[fatman17]

ASIA PACIFIC
Date Posted: 13-Aug-2009


Jane's Defence Weekly

Pakistan sees Taliban leader's death as opportunity to crush insurgency

Farhan Bokhari JDW Correspondent - Islamabad

Key Points
The Pakistani government is confident that it can overcome the country's militancy problems following the death of Baitullah Mehsud

Success in tackling domestic insurgents is also emboldening Islamabad to seek a more prominent role in Afghanistan


The likely death of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) leader Baitullah Mehsud has given a significant boost to the confidence of the Pakistani government and military, which are becoming increasingly optimistic that they can break up the domestic militant group and also play a more assertive role in effecting a lasting security settlement in Afghanistan.

Baitullah is believed to have died in a missile strike carried out by a US unmanned aerial vehicle in South Waziristan on 5 August, and his elimination is being viewed by the Pakistani authorities as a unique opportunity to fracture the TTP - an umbrella group of at least 10,000 militant tribesmen, who have been fighting Pakistan's military and paramilitary troops in the border region.

His departure has left a significant void, with the TTP's top leadership council widely reported to be crippled by infighting. On 8 August, up to 35 TTP commanders and their followers were killed in a shootout during a session to nominate Baitullah's successor, intelligence sources have said.

Among those killed was Hakimullah Mehsud, one of the main leadership candidates. Officials have dismissed claims that he telephoned Pakistani TV channels to deny reports of his death. "Anyone can call to claim that he is Hakimullah Mehsud," one senior intelligence official, who has experience of tracking Hakimullah, told Jane's . "The TTP are trying very hard to prove that they remain intact but the cracks are very visible. Hakimullah Mehsud is dead."

The splits in the TTP and the Pakistani military's success in regaining control of the northern Swat valley - an area where the Pakistani Taliban had assumed control - has given the country renewed confidence in its ability to emerge as a key player in any future security arrangement for Afghanistan.

While Pakistan has to an extent alienated various Taliban factions as a result of its recent military operations, Islamabad has historically enjoyed close links with the Afghan Taliban. Senior Pakistani officials say that such links can be revived, especially at a time when US officials are keen to reach out to reconcilable Afghan militants against a backdrop of mounting NATO casualties.

"Pakistan can be a key element in a long-term security arrangement," a senior Western diplomat in Islamabad told Jane's . "The US and NATO cannot maintain an endless presence in Afghanistan."

Senior Pakistani security officials who spoke to Jane's said Islamabad could help achieve a peaceful settlement in Afghanistan by seeking the support of tribesman on its side of the border.

In the past, the people of the tribal areas, who live along the 2,200 km border with Afghanistan, have tended either to join forces with militants aligned with Al-Qaeda or the Taliban, or they have been too weak to fight them.

"With active support from the Pakistani military, the tribesmen can be given clear choices: either you are with us or against us," said one senior security official in Peshawar, Pakistan's main frontier town on the approach to Afghanistan. "And being against us will mean that your fate will be the same as that of the Taliban in Swat."

In the past, Pakistan has sought advanced technology from the West to improve its monitoring of the Afghan border. At one stage, former president Pervez Musharraf even proposed fencing parts of the border to at least curtail, if not eliminate, the flow of Taliban and other militants.

"There are many ideas to be discussed, but the key new factor is that Pakistan is now in a position to have a wider role," the Peshawar official said. "The Western world must understand that, [while] they can mount large military operations in Afghanistan and take control, Pakistan will eventually be the key to sustaining the benefits of such a victory."

 

[waraich66]

The Pakistani government is confident that it can overcome the country's militancy problems following the death of Baitullah Mehsud

As usual funny statement from Government , is TTP a personal or family organisation? , i dont think so, it is well structured organisation just like Al Qaeda getting aid from multiple resources, untill unless we dont break their supply line and break their communication network it is impossible to eliminate them completely .

 

[TaimiKhan]

Agreed, but what about the elements of surprise, shock action, (counter) attacking before the enemy reorganize/consolidate?

Well these all things would be just for the first few days, these organizations, groups or tribes no matter what ideological or other differences they may have, once confronted by the army will get united, plus they already know that army may attack, as they have been kind of encircled, and army has done its homework, man power is there, equipment is there.
As i said, PA should covertly by using ISI and local pro-govt groups break the alliance, and once sizable reduction in their strength is seen, then PA should strike. Right now they are all there sorting out their problems, if we attack, we may achieve few things in the start but they will all of a sudden get united.
Best option to buy as many of them as possible, bring more distance between them using ISI operatives or pro-govt guys, let the tribes rise up and support them militarily, just like in previous days we did when Turkistan Bhittani men came under attack or like supporting the lashkar in dir area.

 

[Skywalker]

The Pakistani government is confident that it can overcome the country's militancy problems following the death of Baitullah Mehsud

As usual funny statement from Government , is TTP a personal or family organisation? , i dont think so, it is well structured organisation just like Al Qaeda getting aid from multiple resources, untill unless we dont break their supply line and break their communication network it is impossible to eliminate them completely .

Its also funny enough to understand that both the sides are getting financial aid from the same source.

 

[Skywalker]

Well these all things would be just for the first few days, these organizations, groups or tribes no matter what ideological or other differences they may have, once confronted by the army will get united, plus they already know that army may attack, as they have been kind of encircled, and army has done its homework, man power is there, equipment is there.
As i said, PA should covertly by using ISI and local pro-govt groups break the alliance, and once sizable reduction in their strength is seen, then PA should strike. Right now they are all there sorting out their problems, if we attack, we may achieve few things in the start but they will all of a sudden get united.
Best option to buy as many of them as possible, bring more distance between them using ISI operatives or pro-govt guys, let the tribes rise up and support them militarily, just like in previous days we did when Turkistan Bhittani men came under attack or like supporting the lashkar in dir area.

On the contrary, why should we give them time to regroup or overcome their differneces, I think its a golden oppertunity for the PA to take them on. 'cause all the TTP fractions will have serious doubts about each others integerity to fight against PA as a united forces.

Have you forgot the famous rule of 'Divide and rule'.

 

[seekers]

The Pakistani government is confident that it can overcome the country's militancy problems following the death of Baitullah Mehsud

As usual funny statement from Government , is TTP a personal or family organisation? , i dont think so, it is well structured organisation just like Al Qaeda getting aid from multiple resources, untill unless we dont break their supply line and break their communication network it is impossible to eliminate them completely .

One time people also predict that is impossible to eliminate them from swat.These people has still have sympathy for taliban.
Certainly PA could eliminate taliban from country but not from hearts of their sympathiser who are their common believers.

 

[waraich66]

One time people also predict that is impossible to eliminate them from swat.These people has still have sympathy for taliban.
Certainly PA could eliminate taliban from country but not from hearts of their sympathiser who are their common believers.

Local people supported talaban because GOP failed to provide them free justice,health and jobs.

Corruption is mother of terrorism.

 

[TaimiKhan]

Local people supported talaban because GOP failed to provide them free justice,health and jobs.

Corruption is mother of terrorism.

These things were not available for last 60 years also. As for justice, they have their own system of jarga system and they don't want it to be tempered with or abolished. Yes they other two things are missing, but i have lived in these areas and had a first hand experience of these people thinking. They need facilities but with their own term & conditions. The have a tribal system which is filled with animosity, which is there for generations. Just to give an example, when my father was commanding a FC corps, in his area of command there were 40+ tube wells, all sealed becoz the land owner or the malik of the area did not wanted to give the water taken out of his land to the village or malik of another area, just for honor as they were enemies. There were countless schools closed down because of the same case as the tribal elder did not wanted to send the children of his village or area to the school located on the other tribal elder area, due to animosity.

The main reason taliban gained the upper hand was money, tribal relations & the most feared weapon was FEAR. They killed anyone who opposed them, they killed hundreds of tribal elders who resisted them, when people saw their elder getting killed their courage to resist them faded away. Now the situation is like this that no tribal elder wants to call himself the malik of his area or a tribal chief.
The largest tribe wazir, his chief was killed few years ago, a senator farid, and his son who is the chief of ahmedzai wazir now is sitting in isb and has never visited his area of domain due to fear.

Taliban had given no legal system, they did 1 things right but 10 wrong.

The tribal people love their guns & wanna live by their own rules of centuries old, by the pakhtunwali code.

 

[TaimiKhan]

On the contrary, why should we give them time to regroup or overcome their differneces, I think its a golden oppertunity for the PA to take them on. 'cause all the TTP fractions will have serious doubts about each others integerity to fight against PA as a united forces.

Have you forgot the famous rule of 'Divide and rule'.

Sir, if u read my post again, that is what i am emphasizing that divide and then attack. They are not divided yet, but at this stage if we attack they will get united again very quickly. PA should do whatever to divide them. Then attack. Its hardly 1 week or so since BM died, they are all there, if we attack now they will get united.

Kindly read my previous post again.

 

[Skywalker]

Sir, if u read my post again, that is what i am emphasizing that divide and then attack. They are not divided yet, but at this stage if we attack they will get united again very quickly. PA should do whatever to divide them. Then attack. Its hardly 1 week or so since BM died, they are all there, if we attack now they will get united.

Kindly read my previous post again.

I understand your point brother, but dont you think since the top brass of the TTP lying under one roof, isnt it the golden oppertunity for PA to eliminate them. But again neither I am from armed forces nor I am a strategist. Just my two cents.

 

[TaimiKhan]

I understand your point brother, but dont you think since the top brass of the TTP lying under one roof, isnt it the golden oppertunity for PA to eliminate them. But again neither I am from armed forces nor I am a strategist. Just my two cents.

Yups your point of view is right, but once PA launches a full scale attack, their top commanders have to be there or else their fighters will quit too. If your leaderships is not with u then no use to fight.